Need to de-escalate Moscow-Kiev tension

An escalation of tension between Russia and Ukraine augurs bad for both. The two countries are going through throes of deplorable financial crisis and the diplomatic flareup will only worsen the already dismal situation. The hostilities have badly hit their economies and it is in the interest of both that the conflict is not allowed to intensify further.
The global investors have become wary after Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Thursday sounded a warning that its clash with Russia could turn into a full-blown war. Even though Russian President Vladimir Putin pooh-poohed such a threat, the market reacted to the risk of an invasion by Moscow on Kiev. The rout in Ukrainian assets worsened, with the nation’s restructured bonds heading for their worst week since May. Russia’s ruble too declined and the exchange rate weakened.
The recent surge in violence in eastern Ukraine is a cause for concern. It seems that rather than resolving the raging conflict, both the countries are widening the rift by breaching the truce and trading accusations. Commentators say that while Moscow should stop build-up of its military force, Kiev must resist reacting to any provocation. Adhering to the Minsk agreement “is and remains the yardstick for the future of sanctions (on Russia),” German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently said in an interview. There are plans to resume talks over the truce pact at next month’s G20 summit in China.
Putin has to realize that his country can’t continue to live with the economic sanctions and the time has come to relent. Ukraine too has to keep the communication channels open. On a visit to Crimea last week, the Russian President announced, “We are not going to restrict our relations, despite the reluctance of the current authorities in Kiev to have a full-fledged diplomatic relations.” He even appointed a new minister who can take over the task of rebuilding economic ties with Ukraine. It was seen as a positive step until Poroshenko voiced his “Russian invasion” apprehensions.
Ukraine will mark anniversary of its independence from Russia on August 24. Russia is set to hold parliamentary elections next month. Many experts believe that the escalation rhetoric is being mounted keeping the timing in mind. “Both Russia and Ukraine are escalating their rhetoric to try to push the West to be more active in resolving the conflict,” says Igor Bunin, director of the Moscow-based Center for Political Technologies.
While Russia has to take steps to ensure revival of its sagging economy, Ukraine must shift its focus on domestic policies that can restart the stalled $17.5 billion western-led economic bailout. The only hope remains in reconciliation and in a renewed push to the ceasefire. The West has to exert pressure on both the warring parties to implement the Minsk treaty and take diplomatic and economic measures to end the 28-month conflict that has claimed more than 9,500 lives. The Russia-Ukraine dispute has to be seen beyond political posturing. If it drags on and on, not only the economies of the two countries but the world economy as a whole will take a hit. Till now, the 40% of gas supplies to Europe that flow from Russia via Ukraine may have remained unaffected with just a marginal price spike. But tomorrow, these supplies could become insecure!