Oil follows Wall Street higher as dollar weakness lifts markets

Oil rises as the dollar tumbled, energising markets while investors continue to evaluate the potential for slowing commodities demand against near-term supply tightness.

West Texas Intermediate traded near $86, temporarily finding direction from equity markets, which have been recently boosted by earnings reports. The dollar slid, providing an extra boost for commodities that are priced in the currency. Since late September crude prices have been bouncing in a range of about $17 as traders weigh interest rate hikes that menace economic expansion against planned output cuts from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

Oil volatility has declined as prices have struggled for direction. For the global Brent benchmark, a gauge of implied volatility fell to its lowest level since the middle of August. A weekly US crude report on Wednesday may provide some cues to market fundamentals and guide prices accordingly.

“Oil markets will be looking to tomorrow’s inventory report for direction given a relatively narrow trading range in recent days,” said Stacey Morris, head of energy research at VettaFi. “Until the market gets some direction from headlines or the inventory report, oil may just trade relatively flat.”

Crude has remained heavily influenced by broader market trends and shifts in the dollar in recent weeks as central banks embark on one of the most aggressive rate hike cycles in decades. Investors are weighing concerns about the impact of a global economic slowdown and tighter monetary policy against the scope for a reduction in supply. JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said at a conference that he is currently more worried about geopolitical tensions than the severity of a forthcoming recession, however.

“The argument that recession fears and demand destruction will be the dominant driving force in coming months might look valid but unless these concerns are confirmed by conspicuously weakening structure any downside price potential will likely remain restrained,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.

One pillar of support for the market despite a sharp drop since earlier in the year has been the structure of the futures curve. Brent futures are in a backwardation of about $2, indicating tight supply, while the US gasoline market’s structure also firmed markedly.

Speaking at a conference in Singapore, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said the recent OPEC+ supply cut was unfortunate, especially as several economies are now on brink of recession. Birol also said that while IEA members have the stockpiles available to conduct another round of strategic reserve releases, that’s not currently on the agenda.

Earlier on Tuesday, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister defended the Opec+ output cut and criticised major crude importers for emptying reserve crude stockpiles to lower prices.

—Bloomberg