Liverpool ‘sale’ highlights soccer financial fickleness

The mooted sale of Liverpool Football Club confirms an uncomfortable truth: No-one really makes any money owning a soccer club, they only profit from selling it.
Fenway Sports Group Holdings LLC, which also owns Major League Baseball’s Boston Red Sox and the National Hockey League’s Pittsburgh Penguins, is exploring a sale of the English team. Liverpool could fetch more than $5 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing an analyst estimate. A deal of that size would represent an incredible return on the £300 million ($345 million) that FSG paid back in 2010. But without a sale, Liverpool would be a pretty poor investment.
Liverpool is a better-run club than most, with tight controls of its costs. But in more than a decade of FSG’s ownership, the team has still only made a cumulative profit of £27 million, representing an annualized return of just 0.8% — pitiful by almost any standards. 1 Assuming the reinvestment of dividends, the S&P 500 has returned 13% a year to investors over the same period.
So in order to generate anything resembling a meaningful return, you have to sell the team. That’s why they change hands with such regularity: Half the current teams in England’s top tier Premier League have different owners than they did a decade ago. Clubs are sold with the promise of better earnings tomorrow rather than on the basis of financial stability today.
Even the Glazer family, long the target of fan opprobrium during its ownership of Manchester United Plc, has averaged cash returns of just 5% a year since taking over in 2005. And more than half of that has come from selling shares.
That’s because earnings are so tightly linked to on-field performance, a point Liverpool demonstrates all too well. Its most profitable years under FSG were 2018 and 2019, when it reached the Champions League final in successive years – winning the second time around. In the years since, albeit impaired by the Covid-19 pandemic, it has struggled to turn a profit and failed to invest as heavily in its squad. Partly as a consequence of that underinvestment, the team is struggling to perform this year, and appears well out of the title race and risks not qualifying for next year’s Champions League.
The short-lived European Super League would have eliminated that sort of boom and bust cycle by adopting a more American model. The same teams would have participated every year in the top pan-European competition, ensuring stable and predictable revenue. There were also plans to introduce a salary cap to restrain ever-spiraling wage costs. It’s a change that appealed to the U.S. owners of Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal. Now that idea is off the table, the prospect of stabilizing earnings must have looked pretty bleak.
But then Todd Boehly and Clearlake ponied up £4.3 billion earlier this year to buy Chelsea FC. Suddenly the timing for a Liverpool sale looks propitious. Even as future earnings look more complicated than they did when the super league was still a realistic possibility, valuations have climbed into the stratosphere – Chelsea attracted six other bidders.

—Bloomberg