Early monsoon in India to give heat relief, spur sowing

Bloomberg

India’s monsoon will arrive early this year, providing much-needed relief after a record-breaking heat wave damaged crops and threatened the health of millions of people across the region.
The mercury surged as high as about 48 degrees Celsius (118 degrees Fahrenheit) in some parts this month, after the average temperature soared in March to the highest ever for the month in records going back to 1901. The extreme weather scorched wheat fields in the world’s second-biggest grower, damping expectations for exports to alleviate a global shortage.
Heat waves have spurred estimates that wheat yields could slump between 10% and 50% in 2021-22. The government has slashed its
production forecast to 105 million tons from a record 111 million predicted earlier.
The southwest monsoon that waters more than half of the country’s fields is likely to arrive in the southern state of Kerala on May 27, compared with its normal start date of June 1, according to the India Meteorological Department. Sowing of key crops such as rice, corn and soybeans will gather pace.
The monsoon is critical for India’s farm output and economic growth at a time when the country is battling soaring food prices.
The war in Ukraine has further pushed up world food costs to a record. India’s farm sector is the main source of livelihood for 60% of its population and accounts for 18% of the economy.
Showers during the season not only water fields directly, but fill reservoirs that help irrigate winter-sown crops.
A good monsoon boosts crop output, while poor rains lead to drinking water shortages, lower harvests and higher imports of some commodities. India is the second-biggest grower of wheat, rice, sugar and cotton, and the largest buyer of palm, soybean and sunflower oils.
The monsoon is likely to be normal for a fourth year. The weather office forecast in April that annual rainfall
during the four-month
season would be 99% of the long-term average of 87
centimeters.
Last year’s monsoon rains were 99% of the long-term
average, according to the weather department. It was 9% higher than normal in 2020 and 10% more than the average in 2019. Rains helped to boost India’s food grain production to a record in 2021-22.