Opinion

Markets yawn as Trump’s fortunes rise and fall

  As a rattled Donald Trump struggled to parry a composed Hillary Clinton in the waning moments of last week’s presidential debate, markets began to rally in Asia and the price of gold started to fall. Those were sighs of investor relief, news articles asserted, that a Trump presidency was becoming less likely. If so, it was the first time ...

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What should worry us about Deutsche Bank

  My column last week focused on the headwinds facing the European banking system and the broader implications of Deutsche Bank’s fall from grace, including the decline in its stock price by more than half. Let’s now take a closer look at factors that are specific to the bank, including what may happen, and what probably won’t, starting with the ...

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There’s a surplus of worry about global debt levels

  There continues to be a steady drumbeat of editorials and essays warning about the danger of too much private debt. One of the most articulate and thorough of these was a recent op-ed by Richard Vague in Democracy Journal, arguing that excessive debt levels are putting the world in danger of a big economic crisis. But this worry is ...

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Colombia needs peace for economic revival

  It would be wrong to say that all Colombians have rejected their government’s peace deal with the Marxist guerrillas FARC when the turnout for the referendum was only 37percent. The accord was turned down by a razor-thin margin of 50.2percent to 49.8percent. Had the two-thirds who abstained voted, the result would have been very different. The referendum shows only ...

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India’s next rate decision shouldn’t cause anxiety

  Roiled by fears of a possible conflict with Pakistan, markets in India haven’t been terribly stable in recent days. But at least one source of anxiety has happily been alleviated. Investors are confident that Tuesday’s monetary policy statement from the Reserve Bank of India — the first since the departure of former governor Raghuram Rajan — will signal continuity, ...

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New immigration’s face changes the housing market

  The twin shortages plaguing the U.S. in 2016 — a shortage of cheap service labor, and a shortage of affordable housing — are products of the same little-noticed trend: For decades, the education level of immigrants has been rising. A recent report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine entitled “The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration” ...

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Economics can teach you how to dine as a couple

  Marriage counsellors tell us that couples frequently tie the knot without discussing the core matters that can cement or sunder their marriage: finances, children, religion. Well, let me add one under-discussed biggie to the list: restaurant dining. I am eternally astonished to find not only that many couples I know failed to discuss this key area before they marched ...

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Trump’s BFF: Rosy Scenario

  Rosy Scenario is alive and well. There is a long and dubious tradition among politicians of projecting high — usually unrealistic — rates of economic growth as a way of avoiding unpopular political choices. We can do everything, because rapid growth and torrents of tax revenues will pay the bills. That’s Rosy’s message, and Donald Trump has eagerly embraced ...

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Bullish news from Wall Street’s bearish seers

Wall Street equity analysts sure are a gloomy lot these days. Based on the average estimate of forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, they expect the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to finish the year 1 percent lower than yesterday’s close. This is noteworthy because it’s so out of character. Most of the time — 82 percent during the past decade, to ...

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US suburbs will soar on the wings of technology

  For a few years it seemed that Americans were moving to the cities, but now the trends are toward the suburbs once again. Long-turn trends favor suburbs even more. THE SHARING ECONOMY One reason is the rise of Uber and other ride-sharing services. Uber helps users virtually everywhere, but in cities there are subways and buses and walking might ...

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