China-Japan rivalry deepens as Abe, Xi are on pace for more power

Bloomberg

Asia’s two biggest economies both have their most powerful leaders in decades — and neither one has much incentive to mend a relationship that has long been volatile.
Polls show Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling party is heading for a landslide win in an October 22 election, putting him on track to become the longest-serving leader in the country’s history. Similarly, President Xi Jinping may enter his second term next week as China’s strongest leader in at least a generation.
When both men rose to power in 2012, ties were at the lowest point since the nations agreed to establish diplomatic ties in the early 1970s. Fears of a military clash swirled as ships and planes from both countries tailed one another around disputed islands known as the Senkakus in Japan and Diaoyus in China. Anti-Japanese demonstrations in China hurt trade and investment.
While Abe and Xi have managed to stabilize ties since then — even meeting one-on-one several times — conflicting interests make it unlikely that the next five years will bring a breakthrough in relations. The divide has been evident recently in their approach toward North Korea, with Xi’s push for talks contrasting with Abe’s call for more pressure against Kim Jong Un.
More broadly, Xi is pushing to expand China’s military and economic influence throughout Asia, while Abe wants to counter that with stronger defense capabilities and alliances.
“Abe’s quest for a more powerful Japan also stems from a strong feeling of
insecurity in the face of China’s aggressiveness — not just in and around Japan, but in East Asia,” Giulio Pugliese, a lecturer in war studies at King’s College London and co-author of a book on
Sino-Japanese politics, said by email. “What we are and will be witnessing is a quieter standoff.’’