US must show India it’s better ally than Putin

India has surprised and disappointed many of its fellow democracies by refusing to directly condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some US officials have even let their frustrations spill out in public. Although understandable, such criticisms are mostly unproductive. The US and its allies should instead concentrate on showing India that the country’s interests are better served through partnership with the West, not Vladimir Putin.
Russia and China seem to see India’s loyalty as up for grabs. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently dropped by New Delhi unannounced to discuss a border dispute. His Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov followed within days. According to Bloomberg News, Russia is offering to sell crude oil to India at a steep discount and to set up a rupees-for-rubles payment system to avoid restrictions on Russian banks.
Allied officials are right to want to push back on this apparent charm offensive. Allowing India to undermine sanctions would send the wrong signal to the many other countries who haven’t yet joined Western efforts to isolate Russia. Having the world’s biggest democracy soft-pedal the blatant violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty also undercuts the effort to defend vital rules of global conduct. But overtly pressuring India to pick sides would be unwise on two levels.
For one, it would draw charges of hypocrisy. Indian leaders rightly bristle at criticism for buying Russian oil when European countries haven’t ceased their own purchases. Second and more important, taking umbrage at India’s fence-sitting isn’t practical. An estimated 85% of India’s major weapons systems rely on Russian equipment. India flies more than 250 Russian-made fighter jets, fields more than 1,200 Russian tanks, and sails seven Kilo-class submarines. With another $10 billion worth of weapons systems in the pipeline, the country will depend on Russian parts and maintenance for years.
India’s long-standing ties with Russia can’t be severed overnight. Nor can the US realistically expect India to abandon the strategic autonomy its foreign-policy elite has jealously guarded since independence.
For now, the Biden administration should focus on what it can fix. The first step is to accelerate efforts to help India diversify its weapons purchases. India’s dependence on Russia has been compounded by the US’s struggle to offer affordable alternatives: the missile-defense systems the US proposed selling to India, for instance, cost nearly three times as much as the sophisticated Russian S-400 batteries the Indian military ultimately purchased. Even so, the situation is improving. Indian imports of Russian arms fell nearly 50% between 2017 and 2021, while defense trade with the US grew from nearly zero in 2008 to more than $20 billion in 2020. At talks, the US should propose more concrete ways to increase cooperation, including by finding ways to share technology and set up co-production facilities to reduce costs. In the meantime, the administration should issue a waiver for India’s S-400 purchase, which would otherwise be subject to sanctions.
Over the longer term, the US and its partners in Europe and Asia must show India that they can address its interests far better than Russia can. However the war in Ukraine ends, the Russian economy and arms industry will struggle for years. Putin’s Russia will be unstable, isolated and increasingly dependent on China.

—Bloomberg