Top Japan bankers see negative rates to stay as BOJ roils market

Bloomberg

Top executives at Japan’s biggest banks are expecting negative interest rates to linger and see little immediate earnings boost after a surprise move by the nation’s central bank pushed lenders’ shares up by 13% last week.
Earnings won’t enjoy a meaningful lift unless the Bank of Japan (BOJ) scraps negative interest, according to three senior executives, who asked not to
be identified discussing central bank policy in public.
But the BOJ is unlikely to immediately raise interest rates — even after a change of governor in April — unless an outsider is chosen to lead the institution, one executive said. It may be difficult for insiders to break with existing policy, the person added.
Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg see BOJ veterans as the best choices for the position, with current Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya and
former Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso leading the list. The central bank may also risk losing a chance to hike rates if the global economy suffers a sharp slowdown next year, another executive said.
The lukewarm reaction from executives compares with investors and strategists who are growing more bullish on Japan bank stocks, saying the BOJ’s move to allow 10-year bond yields to rise to around 0.5% is a precursor to a broader policy shift. Goldman Sachs Group Inc sees an “increased likelihood,” of abandoning negative interest rates.
Morgan Stanley strategists upgraded their view on Japanese lenders “as a hedge,” saying the move is positive for bank earnings and valuations as they lifted the sector to overweight from equal weight.
Still, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stressed that the bank’s latest tweaks on its bond yield control program were not the beginning of an exit of monetary easing, but a way to make it sustainable and run smoothly.
Mizuho estimates it will see a 35 billion yen ($263 million) boost annually in profit from lending and markets operations, if the policy rate is raised to 0% from -0.1% and yields on 5-year and 10-year Japanese government bonds at 0.15% and 0.4% respectively, according to an earnings presentation.