Syrian rebels enter Idlib as Turkey looks at ‘risky’ mission

Bloomberg

Syrian rebels backed by Turkey are engaged in a “serious operation” in the country’s Idlib province, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, part of a joint mission with Russia and Iran to monitor a ceasefire agreement and pacify a rebel stronghold in northwest Syria.
Turkey also beefed up troops on the border since the three countries agreed to establish a combat-free zone in Idlib— largely controlled by former al-Qaeda militants—and to monitor any violations by opposition groups or forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. It isn’t clear when Turkish troops will cross the Syrian border.
On Saturday, Free Syrian Army rebels, riding on the back of trucks with automatic weapons, crossed into Idlib via Turkey as troops received orders about where they will be deployed in Syria, Hurriyet newspaper reported. Erdogan said Turkish troops haven’t yet crossed the border and the operation was carried out by the FSA rebels.
The troops had earlier clashed their way to retake Syrian town of al-Bab from IS.
“Serious operation underway in Idlib and it will continue,” Erdogan said in a televised address to ruling AK Party members in Afyon. “We can’t leave our brothers who had fled Aleppo to the mercy of terrorist organisations.”
The moves come after Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to Ankara to dine with Erdogan on September 28. Erdogan travelled to Tehran to meet with Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani. The Turkish leader’s coordination with Russia and Iran comes amid deepening tensions with the US, exacerbated by Washington’s decision to deliver arms to Kurdish groups that Turkey views as terrorists.
Turkish troops are expected to be deployed inside Idlib with Russians stationed around the city, and the collaboration emphasizes the closer ties between Erdogan and Putin, a relationship viewed with concern by Turkey’s NATO allies.
It also represents a shift in Ankara’s attitude to Syrian leader Assad, analysts said. Turkey
has long opposed any political transition under him, but Russia’s intervention in Syria’s civil war
shored up the president after years of Turkish and US insistence that he must go.
By joining the Idlib mission, Turkey is “de facto agreeing to the transition of power for Assad,” Talha Kose, an analyst with the Ankara-based Foundation for Political and Social Research, said at a conference on Syria in Istanbul. “It is a very risky area—Turkey may face a backlash from moderate rebels if it can’t deliver humanitarian services” and may also “come under pressure” from Russia and Iran to eliminate militants, he said.
Turkey’s goal will be to prevent violations of the ceasefire agreement, deliver aid to civilians
and pacify groups including the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin told state-run TRT television, referring to the al-Qaeda-linked militants. It is unclear where Iranian forces would be stationed. A successful mission would help Assad focus on fighting IS in eastern Syria, Emre Ersen, an analyst at Istanbul’s Marmara University, said at the conference. In addition to HTS fighters, Idlib contains factions of the Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army who fought against the Syrian president.
Turkey should rely on the moderate rebels in Idlib, including the Free Syrian Army, to fight the militants and avoid any unilateral military action that could be construed as violating the terms of the agreement, said Kose.
The scale of Turkey’s military buildup has raised questions about whether it has ambitions after Idlib, particularly in the Kurdish-run province of Afrin. Turkey has been seeking the support of both Russia and Iran against the Kurds in Syria.