HONG KONG / AP
For decades, Hong Kong thrived as an Asian business hub thanks to its killer combination of Western freedoms, independent courts and closeness to mainland China’s booming market. Now political and economic ills from the mainland are eroding that edge.
Swedish-Chinese author Gui Minhai was counting on Hong Kong’s freedoms when he chose the city as the base for the publishing empire he has built up over the past decade, churning out exposes on elite Chinese politics that were snapped up by visitors from mainland China, where they are prohibited.
The recent temporary disappearances of Gui and four colleagues, including his British chief editor Lee Bo, rising political volatility and slowing growth in China are undermining confidence in Beijing’s promises to leave the city’s freedoms intact for a half-century after taking control of Hong Kong in 1997.
In unusually blunt comments, Financial Secretary John Tsang predicted
recently that Hong Kong’s economy would eke out its smallest expansion in four years in 2016.
“Politics and economics are closely intertwined. Political volatility will unavoidably impact on our economy,” Tsang said in his budget speech last month. Tension and turbulence have left many in Hong Kong feeling suffocated by an confrontational atmosphere, said Tsang, warning of “even greater chaos” ahead if tensions aren’t resolved.
Hong Kong remains wealthier and freer than the mainland, but the city of 7.2 million is riven with inequality and faces growing competition from other Chinese businesshubs like nearby Shenzhen and Shanghai. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping has sought to crush dissent in other regions like Xinjiang and Tibet, showing little sympathy for the yearning among many in Hong Kong for greater democracy. Investors aren’t rushing for the exits yet, but in the financial industry,
backbone of the economy, the mood is darkening.
“If Hong Kong is gradually being taken over by all these Chinese business practices and also politically there’s more and more pressure and influence coming from mainland China, this will definitely destroy Hong Kong in the end,” said Edward Chan, an investment fund manager.
Foreign investors might start to “think that if Hong Kong does not have rule of law or anything, why don’t they just move their investment directly
to Shanghai or Beijing? What’s the
difference?” he said.
As Beijing increasingly opts more for the “one country” part of the “one country, two systems” framework guaranteeing its separate legal and financial systems until 2047, Hong Kong is paying a price.
Dimming Hong Kong’s image as a global financial center, HSBC decided in February not to move its headquarters from London back to Hong Kong despite a restructuring focused on “pivoting” toward Asia.
In explaining its choice, HSBC did not refer to China, though lauded Britain’s “internationally respected regulatory framework and legal system.”
“Increasing political linkages are likely to weigh on Hong Kong’s institutional strength,” the agency said. “In addition, the risks to China’s economic and financial stability may also undermine Hong Kong’s own economic and financial outlook.”
The booksellers’ case shook the relatively freewheeling publishing industry in Hong Kong, whose status as a base for independent-minded financial research could suffer if investment banks with business interests on the mainland avoid releasing reports critical of Chinese state-owned companies or the economy, said Chan.