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BLOOMBERG
Nigeria’s ruling party looks set to retain its dominance of the country’s political offices after elections held in recent weeks.
Besides winning the presidency, the All Progressives Congress (APC) kept majorities in the Senate and among state governors. The party also secured the most seats in the House of Representatives.
While the runners-up in the presidential race — Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labour Party — are challenging the official results in court, Bola Tinubu is scheduled to take over from President Muhammadu Buhari at the end of May. Despite receiving the lowest share of the vote of any incoming head of state in Nigeria’s democratic history, his administration will start with a solid base from which to implement a challenging set of reforms.
Tinubu’s first major test will be removing gasoline subsidies that cost the government more than $10 billion last year.
The APC’s candidate pledged during his campaign to cut the costly subsidy to ease the nation’s debt-service burden and free up spending for healthcare and education. While the three main campaigns all called for the removal of the subsidy, it will still be politically risky – pushing up transport costs and potentially triggering social unrest.
Tinubu’s party is not assured control of the House of Representatives because about 10% of the 360 seats are yet to be filled. It will, however, begin the next parliamentary session with at least 57 of the 109 seats in the upper chamber and running a minimum of 19 of Nigeria’s 36 states.
In addition to fuel subsidies, the next president will confront a mountain of public debt that’s grown seven-fold to about 77 trillion naira ($167 billion) under Buhari and a bill to service those obligations that could soon consume the government’s entire revenue. He will also need to assess an unsure future for Nigerian oil production, particularly onshore, and tackle rampant insecurity across vast swathes of the West African nation.
Although supportive lawmakers and governors will provide Tinubu with more room for maneuver, majorities do not guarantee compliance — as Buhari discovered in his first term during which the relationship between the executive and the parliamentary leadership deteriorated into gridlock.