Japan export growth stalls as trade-war risks cloud outlook

Bloomberg

Japan’s export growth slowed again in November, with shipments eking out a tiny gain, as weakening demand in China and trade-war risks cloud the outlook.
The value of exports rose 0.1 percent from a year earlier, broadly in line with a median forecast for a 1.2 percent gain, according to the finance ministry. With the exception of a decline shipments in September, that was the slowest growth in two years.
Japan’s export-dependent economy faces a challenge as growth slows in China, its largest trading partner. Shipments to China rose only 0.4 percent in November, putting the three-month average at 2.6 percent. Export volumes to China fell 5.8 percent. The effects of Beijing’s deleveraging policies on domestic demand are probably having a big impact, said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities Co.
Next year could be even more difficult for Japan. In addition to possible fallout from the US-China trade war, the threat of US car tariffs still looms and Tokyo officials are set to begin negotiating a trade deal with their US counterparts. As a counterweight, the Japan-led TPP-11 trade agreement kicks off at the end of this year and Japan’s pact with
Europe may take effect in February.
“Looking ahead, the signals on trade are mixed,” said Bloomberg Economics’ Yuki Masujima, ahead of the data release.