Rate hikes putting market stability at risk, warns ECB

BLOOMBERG 

The European Central Bank (ECB) said that financial markets will be vulnerable to negative shocks as it continues the fight against inflation, with real estate among the sectors at risk.
Higher interest rates are testing the resilience of households, companies, governments and property markets, the institution said on Wednesday in its biannual Financial Stability Review. That’s leaves investors potentially exposed to disorderly adjustments, it cautioned.
While banks have so far been remarkably resilient to recent turbulence in the US and Switzerland, higher funding costs and lower asset quality could still dent their profitability, it added.
“Financial markets remain vulnerable to less favourable growth and inflation outcomes,” the ECB said in the report. “Adverse market dynamics could be amplified by forced sales of securities.”
The warnings serve as a comprehensive impact report on what’s already the most aggressive monetary-tightening campaign in the ECB’s 25-year history. But despite the swirling dangers to financial stability and economic growth in the 20-nation euro zone, officials battling to return inflation to 2% say the spate of rate hikes since last July isn’t over.
“Price stability remains as crucial as ever for durably preserving financial stability,” ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos wrote in the preface of the report, before elaborating on the side effects policymakers must now accept.
“Tighter financing conditions to forcefully address high inflation have contributed to a reappraisal of the economic outlook and to a reversal of overly compressed asset-price risk premia,” he said. “As financial conditions normalise, this may expose fragilities and fault lines in the financial system.”
Property is one area the ECB singled out. House prices have cooled considerably over a relatively short period of time and could plummet further if higher mortgage costs continue to reduce demand.
At the same time, commercial real estate markets remain in a downturn thanks to tougher financing conditions, an uncertain economic outlook and weaker post-pandemic demand. That correction could test the resilience of investment funds, the ECB said.
“The correction in property markets could turn disorderly in the event of negative macro-financial surprises,” the report said.
It also identified some bright spots, while warning they shouldn’t be taken for granted after the financial turmoil that began in the US.
Lenders have been supported by strong capital and liquidity positions that must now be preserved, according to the ECB.