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Just months before she retires from politics, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is jetting to Washington to meet US President Joe Biden. The event will be staged to show a return to transatlantic harmony after four years of acrimony under Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump. But to keep up those appearances, the Americans will be hiding a crushing sense of disappointment, and the Germans a gnawing anxiety.
In different ways, both Merkel and Biden have been foils to Trump, not least by representing multilateralism and cooperation rather than nationalism. So Biden and his team were hoping for a big show of support from Merkel, especially in confronting the autocratic antagonists of the democratic West: China and Russia. Instead, Merkel has, in the cloaked and understated way that is her wont, snubbed Biden twice. The first affront occurred in December, just weeks before Biden was to take his oath of office, when she pushed a Chinese-European investment deal into its next phase — without even consulting Biden’s team. Instead of helping Washington to constrain Beijing, Merkel wants Europe to keep its options open.
The second and worse snub was her refusal to move even an inch towards bipartisan American demands regarding a controversial gas pipeline being built from Russia to Germany. Called Nord Stream 2 and more than 90% finished, it doubles the amount of gas Russia can export directly under the Baltic Sea to northwestern Europe. Paired with TurkStream, a new Russian pipeline through the Black Sea and into southeastern Europe, Nord Stream 2 completes a strategic goal long pursued by Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president.
In future he could, if he wanted, bypass Ukraine and other eastern European countries and cut off the gas now flowing through them. This would deprive those governments of much needed transit fees, leaving them isolated and open to Russian blackmail, or worse.
Putin, a product of the Soviet-era KGB, is already playing a game of threats and winks with Ukraine, which he has been destabilising since 2014, when he annexed Crimea and seeded a proxy war in the country’s east. “Everything is possible,†he answered delphically when asked whether he’ll keep gas flowing through Ukraine, “but goodwill from our Ukrainian partners is required.†Few things are as creepy as the word “goodwill†passing the lips of this man.
The geopolitical threat posed by Nord Stream 2 seems blatant enough for Poland, the Baltic republics, France, the European Union and other allies, who all oppose the pipeline alongside the US.
—Bloomberg