Merkel’s biggest German ally could one day be her biggest threat

Bloomberg

In Germany’s year of political turmoil, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is emerging as a surprise winner.
With his pro-European convictions and even-keeled presence, the Social Democrat gained stature during Chancellor Angela Merkel’s recent infighting with her party bloc’s nationalists over migration. Scholz, 60, has pulled ahead of Merkel and now is Germany’s most popular politician, having stood aside and presented himself as a stabilising force during the coalition crisis.
It doesn’t hurt that he’s a budget hawk much like Wolfgang Schaeuble, his Christian Democratic predecessor, and shares Merkel’s focus on working with France to hold the
European Union together. While that makes Scholz one of the chancellor’s most valuable allies, his poll surge also establishes him as a likely contender for her job down the road.
“Scholz isn’t a target of anger as Merkel is for her migration policy,” Manfred Guellner, head of the Forsa polling company in Berlin, said by phone.
Instead, “he’s popular because he is seen as the guarantor of a solid budget.”
Scholz, who’s also deputy chancellor, has broad public backing for taking that world view to his first meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs in Buenos Aires.
A labour lawyer by training, Scholz held a cabinet post in Merkel’s first term and served for seven years as mayor of Hamburg, Germany’s biggest port and second-biggest city.
Germans appear to appreciate his emotional restraint, political pragmatism and preference for making policy behind closed doors — traits he shares with Merkel.
When Merkel’s parliamentary majority teetered in early July, it fell to Scholz to urge her Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian allies to stop squabbling about asylum rules, avoid a risky early election and get back to work for the sake of the country.
His deadpan understatement is so well-known to Germans that Scholz was ribbed on a talk show for describing Merkel’s worst coalition crisis yet as “remarkable to put it mildly.” Those were strong words coming from Scholz, the host quipped, making everyone on stage crack up.
Scholz’s steady hand is a key asset while Merkel’s popularity suffers from her party bloc’s strife. Once dubbed a “male Merkel” by a columnist, he overtook the chancellor in a poll of highly-rated German politicians in June and reached the top spot in the latest survey published on July 13, according to polling company FG Wahlen.
As the SPD regroups from its biggest defeat since World War II in last year’s national election, Scholz’s popularity increasingly positions him as the party’s next candidate for the chancellorship, according to two people familiar with views inside the party who asked not to be identified. Scholz hasn’t revealed any plans publicly and his office declined to comment.