Italy’s election at endgame as Berlusconi fights Five Star

Bloomberg

Italians vote on Sunday in an election that pits several shades of populists against the mainstream and which may only succeed in further clouding the political landscape. The anti-establishment Five Star Movement was on track to be the biggest single party when a polling blackout began on February 17, though only Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right coalition was within reach of an outright majority. The 81-year-old media mogul has engineered a shock comeback, but only by joining forces with another populist group, the euroskeptic League, which is challenging his dominance of the Italian right.
The most likely outcome is a hung parliament, which would trigger an extended period of horsetrading among the parties. Five Star leader Luigi Di Maio, 31, has vowed not to seek a coalition deal, but appealed to rivals to back him if his party wins the most votes.
“Five Star Movement is transforming the political landscape,” said Roberto D’Alimonte, a political science professor at Rome’s Luiss University. “If the center-right doesn’t get a majority, a lot will depend on whether Five Star opens up to the idea of a coalition.”
Last year French President Emmanuel Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte held off the challenge of euroskeptic populists in national elections and Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party remained the biggest force in the German parliament despite the rise of the anti-immigrant AfD. Italy’s establishment parties are struggling to match that performance following years of lackluster growth and widespread concern about immigration.
President Sergio Mattarella is due to begin formal discussions with party leaders from early April before picking a candidate he believes can command a majority. The next prime minister will have to win votes of confidence in both houses of parliament.
A government built around either Berlusconi’s alliance or Five Star would risk unsettling financial markets, with concerns over their impact on state finances in a country with huge public debt. Berlusconi and his allies clashed repeatedly during the campaign over who should be premier and over policies from tax cuts to pension reform and the euro.
Berlusconi is banned from holding public office until next year because of a 2013 tax fraud conviction. But he says he could play a key role from the sidelines and has flagged European Parliament head Antonio Tajani as his candidate for the premiership.
It’s fundamental that the next government “have a premier that has solid relationships in Europe because Italy must regain the influence it’s lost in the European Union,” Berlusconi told Italian daily Il Messaggero in an interview published on Saturday. Di Maio has unveiled a team of would-be ministers with no government experience and pledged to boost spending on the poor, lower taxes and reduce the public debt — while also overhauling European Union treaties to ease spending rules. He’s backtracked on earlier plans to ditch the single currency, telling Radio 24 that “euro-exit is not under discussion.”
Although both Di Maio and League leader Matteo Salvini ruled out an alliance during the campaign, the stance could change once the results are in. Salvini himself said in October that if his coalition with Berlusconi didn’t win a majority, he’d call Five Star co-founder Beppe Grillo.
Grillo joined Di Maio at a rally in Rome’s Piazza del Popolo. Di Maio said Five Star was ready to govern. “The era of opposition has ended.”
The governing Democratic Party has seen its support slide over the course of the campaign and its leader, former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, told newspaper La Repubblica Italy risks “an extremist government” of Five Star, the League and the far-right Brothers of Italy unless his party comes first.
“Di Maio could change strategy and give up some ministers’ jobs but that would be risky for him because many of his voters don’t want deals with other parties,” said Fabio Bordignon, a political science professor at the University of Urbino who has studied the party’s rise. “If he doesn’t get a chance to try to form a government, he’ll exploit that by saying the system is united against Five Star.”