Is ‘exceptionally’ weak dollar good news?

A shareholder picks up a money sign stress relief toy from a box during the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. annual shareholders meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, U.S., on Saturday, May 2, 2015. More than 40,000 people are expected Saturday at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which marks Warren Buffett's 50th year running the company. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Bloomberg

The US dollar, down 8 percent this year, will probably weaken further, according to Morgan Stanley. That is primarily good news for American stock investors.
The greenback may finish 2017 down 13 percent, handing S&P 500 companies a 6.5 percent boost to their rolling 2018 per-share estimates, Morgan Stanley analysts including Michael Wilson said in a note on Monday. Even if the dollar stays where it is now, they’ll get a 4 percent earnings bump.
The US Dollar Index has had the weakest start to a year since 2002 amid political uncertainty at home and concern that economic stimulus will be pared in Europe. The measure declined 2.3 percent in the past 10 trading days. Morgan Stanley calls it “exceptionally and unexpectedly weak.”
“Given the very strong US dollar in the second half of 2016, the tail wind will only get stronger in the second half of 2017 even if the dollar remains flat from here until the end of the year,” Wilson said. Weak dollar “has had a enormous impact on financial conditions — making them easier even as central banks have become hawkish.”

Leave a Reply

Send this to a friend