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Bloomberg
Economists say the country is close to full employment, but pay gains for American workers have been flat since 2015. Even last week’s upward blip in wage growth could be wiped out by inflation.
Yet Americans haven’t been this optimistic about future pay raises since the century began, according to the Conference Board’s monthly surveys.
Perhaps the 3.9 percent unemployment rate has them feeling good about the economy in general, so they believe higher pay is only a matter of time. Or maybe it’s the data.
The jobless rate has been at or below 5 percent for 36 straight months. But inflation-adjusted wage growth is at an ebb, too. It was actually negative on a year-over-year basis in July for the first time since January 2017.
The prime-age employment ratio bottomed out at 78.6 percent in 2003. The Great Recession dragged it to 74.8 percent, and it didn’t surpass 78.6 percent until September 2017. It’s currently 79.5 percent.