Trump, Biden close final race with sprint to election day

Bloomberg

The final stretch of the race for the White House between
Donald Trump and Joe Biden has been fraught with dramatic twists — a hospitalised president, a resurgent pandemic, the death of an iconic Supreme Court justice, and the rapid confirmation of her successor.
Yet none of it appears to have altered the course of the race that was set months ago.
After striding into the 2020 election year with a white-hot economy and beating Democratic efforts to remove him from office, Trump was ready to cruise to a second term. But then came the pandemic and economic devastation, steadily unraveling his presidency and case for re-election.
Now, two days before Election Day, Trump finds himself significantly trailing his Democratic challenger and looking to defy public opinion polls — as he did four years ago — to salvage a victory.
“The polling average in this race has just not moved, no matter what happened,” said Jason Roberts, associate chair and professor in the political science department at UNC-Chapel Hill. “Which to me suggests that
voters by and large have made up their minds and made up their minds months ago, and the campaign has just been a sideshow.”
While views of Trump’s performance dimmed as coronavirus deaths mounted in the spring, recent dire news about a resurgence of the pandemic, coupled with the failure of the government to pass another round of economic stimulus, has only reinforced the view that Trump has mishandled the crisis.
And the changes are weighing on markets, one of Trump’s favourite barometers for his performance. The S&P 500 Index dropped 5.6% last week over concerns about economic growth — the worst-ever loss in the week leading to a presidential election.
Trump, though, has maintained his defiant approach and says he has enough support across forgotten corners of America to deliver a second term. He’ll need his die-hard base, who are more likely to vote in-person, to deliver victories in several neck-and-neck states. And he needs Democrats who are lukewarm on Biden — particularly urban and minority voters — to stay home.
Biden aides have raised warning flags in the final weeks of the race that the campaign has not done enough to encourage Black and Latino voters to turn out, particularly in critical states like Florida and Pennsylvania and expansion states like Arizona. Fewer than half of non-White voters in those states have cast ballots so far.
But Trump has lost support from key groups, including seniors and suburban women, over his response to the pandemic. Biden now leads by more than 20 percentage points among women in most polls.
“I think a lot of women are struggling more than ever because of Covid-19, and I think that has really impacted this election,” said Nichola Gutgold, a professor at Penn State Lehigh Valley who studies women in politics.
That trend has Democrats cautiously optimistic about their chances to reclaim the White House and possibly the Senate as well. Polling has consistently shown Biden leading nationally and in key swing states. Compared to 2016, turnout looks poised to grow and fewer voters are undecided. Meanwhile, Trump and Senate Republicans are playing defense in traditionally reliable states, including Georgia, North Carolina and Texas.
“There’s explosive energy by people on the Democratic side that refuse to believe the polls,” said Ben Wikler, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. Both Michigan and Wisconsin flipped to Trump in 2016, but each state elected a Democratic governor in 2018 and polls indicate they’re poised to remain with Democrats this year.