What Salvini’s setback means for Italy

In the end, Italy’s red wall held up against Matteo Salvini’s assault.
The leader of right-wing League had hoped to score a famous win in a regional election in Emilia-Romagna, an area with strong leftist traditions. Voters thought otherwise: Stefano Bonaccini, incumbent Democratic Party governor, won convincingly against his opponent, Lucia Borgonzoni. The populist Five Star Movement collapsed to less than 5%.
The result is a setback for Salvini, who campaigned extensively in the region in the hope of wounding mortally the coalition government of the Democrats and Five Star. But it would be foolish to rule him out. Emilia-Romagna was always an ambitious target. The right-wing partnership of the League, the Brothers of Italy and Forza Italia won big in Calabria, a Southern region that also went to the polls at the weekend.
The latest trouncing of Five Star, still the largest party in parliament, might have a mixed impact on the government. Its lawmakers could keep propping up the executive because they fear losing their seats in a fresh election, but some might defect in the hope of winning Salvini’s favours — with the expectation that he’ll take power eventually (the League dominates national polls). The coalition is extremely fragile.
Nevertheless, Salvini has again failed to deliver a killing blow. The elections in Emilia-Romagna, Italy’s sixth-largest region by population and one of the richest, are his second tactical blunder since the Summer. In August he collapsed the turbo-populist alliance of the League and Five Star as he felt certain he’d secure a new general election, which would propel his right-wing grouping to government. The Democrats and Five Star chose to form an unlikely partnership instead, scuppering his plans.
This time Salvini turned a regional vote into a test for government, as he smelled blood in Emilia-Romagna. With hindsight this too was a mistake. A defeat in Emilia-Romagna was, in a sense, perfectly normal. Yet the narrative has shifted: Today, Salvini comes across as a loser.
The result offers respite to the Democrats, who are regrouping after a string of poor electoral results. The victory is same as UK Labour party winning seats in deep-red Liverpool. In usual times, there would be nothing to celebrate. As the result in Calabria shows, Salvini’s right-wing coalition is dominant in most of the country.
The biggest uncertainty relates to government. Five Star is in an existential crisis as its candidates in both regions failed to get anywhere near 10%. Luigi Di Maio, Italy’s foreign minister, resigned as party leader because he wanted to avoid blame for inevitable defeats.
The Democrats will hope that they can replicate what Salvini did with Five Star in the last administration: Force them into submission by exploiting their fear of a new election.
The best chance for the Democrats and Five Star is to make the government work much better. The left won in Emilia-Romagna because the region has fared well thanks to pragmatic local administration. The same cannot be said for Italy as a whole.
—Bloomberg

Tara Lachapelle is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the business of entertainment and telecommunications, as well as broader deals