Will China overtake the US on Mars missions?

In 2033, a US spacecraft will return to Earth carrying the second cache of rocks ever collected from the surface of Mars. The first cache? It will have been collected by China two years earlier, in 2031, according to plans released by one of China’s top space scientists.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that either mission will succeed. But China’s impressive recent successes operating on and above the Moon and Mars give the country a better chance at lapping Nasa and its partners. The news may cause alarm among Americans accustomed to being first in space for more than a half-century. This is no Sputnik moment, however, and there is no reason to panic. A mission to bring back the samples is an impressive technological achievement. But the future of Mars exploration isn’t sample returns; it’s discovering past life on Mars. For now, the US is better positioned to accomplish that goal.
In 1993, Nasa initiated the Mars Exploration Program, or MEP, a long-term initiative to explore Martian geology, climate and the possibility of past life, while laying a foundation for human exploration. Over the next three decades, Nasa launched orbiters and rovers revealing ancient river and lake beds, as well as mineral evidence of a wet and warm Martian past. These discoveries heightened interest in seeking out evidence for past Martian life, and launching additional probes to find it.
Unfortunately, the scientific instruments necessary to prove that life once existed on Mars are simply too large and complex to transport to the planet’s surface. To make that kind of history-altering discovery, pieces of Mars must be brought back to Earth. That’s a complex endeavour
For example, one early Nasa concept had two rovers landing on Mars, collecting samples and then launching them into orbit, where a third vehicle would rendezvous with them and dispatch them back to Earth. That mission would’ve started launching in 2003 and returned samples in 2008. Instead it was canceled over cost and difficulty.
Twenty years ago, there was little competition for the US in space. The Russian program was in terminal decline, and China was just starting to launch humans into space.
But despite a late start, China’s leadership was determined to catch up. It’s an ambition inspired by the belief that the country’s economic and military future will, in part, be determined by its space capabilities.
During the early 2000s, the Chinese announced an ambitious program of lunar exploration, a future space station and, tentatively, a Mars program. In each case, they have followed through and achieved successes, including lunar rovers, a Mars orbiter and rover, and a small but functional space station that could have Earth orbit to itself if the US doesn’t replace the aging International Space Station by the end of the decade.

—Bloomberg