US ‘locked and loaded’ if Iran behind Saudi attack: Trump

Bloomberg

President Donald Trump promised to help allies following attacks on major Saudi Arabian oil facilities, even though he said the US is no longer directly reliant on Middle Eastern oil and gas and has few tankers there.
“We are a net Energy Exporter,” Trump tweeted. “We don’t need Middle Eastern Oil & Gas, & in fact have very few tankers there, but will help our Allies!”
Brent oil posted its biggest ever intraday jump to more than $71 a barrel. It pared some gains, though both Brent and West Texas crude were still trading about 10 percent higher as news of the devastating attack on the world’s largest exporter also sent currencies of commodity-linked nations higher.
Trump’s statement followed his vow that the US is “locked and loaded depending on verification” that Iran staged the attack on major Saudi Arabian oil facilities, an assertion already made by his secretary of state and backed by administration officials.
“There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification,” Trump said on Twitter without mentioning Iran or specifying what the response would entail. He said he’s awaiting word from Saudi Arabia about who it believed caused the attack and “under what terms we would proceed!”
Several administration officials said that they had substantial evidence that Iran was behind the attack, not the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen who claimed responsibility. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said unequivocally in a tweet that Iran was to blame.
Two administration officials who asked not to be identified discussing internal deliberations told reporters that cruise missiles may have been used in the attacks on a Saudi oil field and the world’s biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq. The range from Yemen was also far beyond the distance of anything the Houthis have ever done, the officials said.
A third administration official, who also asked not to be identified discussing non-public
findings, said precision-guided munitions had been used. The US officials didn’t rule out that armed drones were used as well, even as they rejected the Houthi claims that they mounted the attacks using such pilotless aircraft.
Now, the challenge that the Trump administration faces is balancing a tough response to what it says is a clear act of Iranian aggression, against concern that it’s rushing headlong into a conflict that could spiral out of control. Analysts also warn that doing nothing could send a message to Iran or its proxy militias across the Middle East that they can strike their enemies with impunity.
“There’s no great response here,” said Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The question becomes how does the US navigate between not allowing this precedent to stand on one hand, and avoiding a punitive escalation or one designed to deter future attacks without an escalation. And the answer is there is no answer.”
Still, a major US military response may be unlikely, according to experts who said they doubt Trump will be willing to use force against Tehran or risk escalating violence in the Middle East ahead of the 2020 presidential election.
In June, Trump said he considered a military strike on Iran for shooting down a US drone, only to call off the action at the last minute.
Analysts also said the attacks may do little to deter the president from seeking a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in an effort to broker a new nuclear agreement.