US-Europe unity is best weapon against Russia

After weeks of mostly fruitless diplomacy, Nato is bracing for war. Countering Russia’s buildup on Ukraine’s borders, the alliance is readying a force to deploy to eastern Europe that could include as many as 8,500 US troops. Denmark has dispatched fighter jets to Lithuania and a frigate to the Baltic Sea. Dutch F-35s are being moved to Bulgaria. Multiple member states have ramped up shipments of armor and antitank missiles to the Ukrainian military. The European Union has warned that Russian aggression will have “massive consequences and severe cost.”
Even so, there are clear divisions among the EU’s member states about when and how forcefully to respond. Some governments want to act in the event of a Russian cyberattack on Ukraine, while others are hesitant. Still others are seeking delays and carve-outs to protect their own
domestic businesses and financial institutions.
The stakes are too high to indulge in such quibbles. Failing to confront Russian President Vladimir Putin now will embolden other regimes to violate international norms and seek to redraw borders in the future. Regardless of what Putin does next, it’s critical that the US and Europe maintain a united front — not only to prevent further aggression but also to defend the stability of the international system.
Though US President Joe Biden has said he expects Russian forces to “move in,” Putin’s ultimate intentions remain unclear. The Kremlin denies it’s planning a full-scale invasion even as it intensifies military exercises, moves paratroopers to the border, and deploys more forces to Belarus, within striking distance of the Ukrainian capital. Last weekend, the
UK government said it had evidence that the Kremlin wants to depose President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and install a pro-Russian leader.
On January 27, the US responded to Russia’s security demands, rejecting Putin’s attempt to halt Nato enlargement but leaving open the possibility of further negotiations over arms control and troop movements. Biden is right to continue talks with Russia aimed at defusing the crisis, but he should be prepared if they fail. That means applying greater pressure on European governments to agree on specific punishments for
Russia in advance — and to speak with one voice.
US sanctions alone can create significant pain for Russia because of the power of the dollar, but multilateral punishments would be more effective. Europe is Russia’s top trade partner and the biggest consumer of Russian gas exports. Wider sectoral sanctions against Russian businesses, further limits on access to capital markets, and export controls on more advanced technology would have a damaging impact on Russia’s economy. European states can also do more to squeeze the elite that keeps Putin in power by enforcing anti-money-laundering and anti-corruption rules that are too often circumvented.
Simultaneously, coordinated efforts to aid Ukraine’s military and bolster Nato’s eastern flank are needed to raise the costs to Russia if it invades and to deter Putin from pushing further. That requires Germany’s new government to drop its resistance to supplying defensive weapons to Ukraine, or at least stop preventing other Nato member states from doing so. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz should also make clear that Germany will cancel the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russian forces cross Ukraine’s border.
The costs of imposing sanctions on Russia will be high — not least if Putin weaponises gas supplies to drive up consumer prices in the dead of winter. But the costs of inaction are greater. As was true during the Cold War, Western vigilance and unity of purpose are essential to maintaining global peace and stability. Anything less would make the world a much more dangerous place.
—Bloomberg