UK Tories see opportunity, threats in ‘game of thrones’

Bloomberg

British Conservatives may have suffered their worst election results ever, but their members of parliament are still feeling loved. Barely a day goes by without an invitation to coffee from one senior minister or another, hoping to win their support in the coming race to succeed Theresa May.
Perhaps they would like to come to the Foreign Office, to chat with Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt? It’s been too long since they caught up with Home Secretary Sajid Javid — they really must get together.
Earlier this month, one veteran member of parliament scrolled through the invitations on his phone, laughing as he read them out.
The flattery, and sudden enthusiasm to hear their views about the future of British politics, are a relief from the misery of EU elections that saw the Tory vote collapse. But this is moment of risk for the party’s MPs. In the snakes and ladders game of political advancement that is British politics, the board is about to be rearranged.
A leadership election changes much more than the identity of the prime minister. The forces that have run the government for the last three years — the internal rivalries and informal power structures, the policy priorities and the no-go areas — are all about to shift. The contest itself is likely to create new alliances and feuds that ambitious MPs will have to navigate.
And while a smart move at this tipping point can catapult you ahead, a mistake can see your hopes dashed.
Take George Osborne. In 2005, he was a relatively new MP in a party that was stuck in opposition. But after he ran David Cameron’s successful campaign to lead the Conservatives — then in opposition — he was secure in the post as the party’s Treasury spokesman, on course to become the youngest Chancellor of the Exchequer.
For the decade that followed, he was Cameron’s heir apparent, the man around whom ambitious Tory MPs built their careers. Osborne was summarily fired by the woman who won the ensuing contest, May, and other ministers found themselves sidelined.
But for others, the arrival of May represented a reversal of their fortunes. In May 2016, Chris Grayling was Leader of the House of Commons, a job usually done by ministers on their way out.
Then he ran May’s successful campaign and found his star on the rise once more. He was appointed Transport Secretary, and his subsequent survival of a series of mishaps in that role is probably partly the result of May’s loyalty to him.
As May prepares to step down, those near the top of the ladder know they too are at risk. One current Cabinet member joked privately at the weekend that he’d soon be job hunting.
The risk isn’t all in one direction. Reorganising the government means that a prime minister almost inevitably starts their career by making enemies. Johnson’s previous run for the Tory leadership, in 2016, revealed a previously unknown risk. He’d selected fellow Brexit-backer Michael Gove as his campaign manager, but after five days, Gove had become so frustrated with trying to organize Johnson that he announced he would run for leader himself. Johnson dropped out before he’d even begun.