UK Conservatives have a bigger problem than PM

When, not if, has been the growing consensus on Boris Johnson’s departure as prime minister. He’s unpopular, untrusted and no longer seen as an authority — a man in office but only barely in power.
His former aide and now arch-enemy Dominic Cummings has hinted that there are more damaging party pictures and other kompromat to emerge. And the tension keeps building, with opponents pointing furiously at falling poll numbers and Johnson supporters reminding colleagues that an 80-seat majority is still pretty good.
The bad news for both sides is that the Tories have bigger problems than Boris Johnson to solve. One that gets a lot of focus is an underlying fractiousness. In a parliamentary system where power swings between two major parties, tents are broad and naturally accommodate various tribes, which shape-shift over time. It is the leader’s job to keep them around the same table and prevent family squabbles from spilling out onto the street.
Much is made of those differences within the party, especially during moments where the leader is under attack, as in the dying days of Theresa May’s premiership. Johnson now has various factions to appease too.
The so-called one-nation Tories are deeply skeptical of Johnson and worry the public won’t regain lost trust. A group led by arch-Brexiteer Steve Baker is skeptical of Johnson’s net-zero goals and questions whether the prime minister’s plan will come at the expense of economic growth. They also suspect the new northern MPs want more money for schools and hospitals and are less concerned about tax hikes than other Tory tribes. There’s a faction that is more socially conservative, immigration-focused and wants a war on woke, though its numbers aren’t so great.
Of course, a Tory is a Tory, and the focus on tribalism can feel overblown, especially where geographical distinctions are made. Ultimately, this is a party that still believes in a low-tax, light-regulation state. All these groups broadly subscribe to a set of governing principles that have defined the party certainly since Margaret Thatcher. “Without Johnson there would be a reversion to the mean of Thatcherite conservatism, though to some extent mitigated by electoral reality,” says Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London.
That’s why the second problem for the Tories is the thornier one: Given Britain’s growth and tax trajectory, even a neo-Thatcherite ideal is looking implausible. Johnson has a routine during his weekly parliamentary appearances where his voice rises and he notes with great satisfaction that the UK is the fastest growing G7 economy these days. That sounds impressive, but the independent Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast that the UK economy will grow in real terms by 1.3% to 1.7% once the rebound is over after next year. “I get the spin but I deeply hope that no one in government believes their own PR,” quipped Tony Danker, head of the Confederation of British Industries, in a speech.
By the time the next election comes around, if something doesn’t change, the Conservatives will be the stewards of an economy that grows at a lumbering pace, where taxes are the highest for a generation and many millions are left waiting for treatment at the National Health Service while schools dealing with major learning gaps from the pandemic remain underfunded. Who would vote for that?
The answer, of course, is anyone who believes Labour will do no better. Under Johnson, the party reshaped itself to win over new voters, most notably by signaling a greater willingness to intervene in the economy in order to rebalance opportunity and outcomes so that the more disadvantaged north will benefit. All of those changes have made the party exceptionally difficult to oppose. Labour can neither run further to the left on economics nor further to the right on immigration.

—Bloomberg