Trump warns Assad against reckless assault on Syria’s Idlib

Bloomberg

US President Donald Trump warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies against “recklessly” attacking the northwestern province of Idlib, the last major holdout of rebels in the country’s seven-year-old civil war.
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump President Bashar al-Assad of Syria must not recklessly attack Idlib Province. The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed. Don’t let that happen!
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov criticised Trump’s warning as “not a comprehensive approach.” He said the problem of terrorists hiding out in Idlib “needs to be dealt with” and that the Syrian military is preparing to do that, though he didn’t indicate how or when.
Assad’s forces and their allies are massed for the assault on Idlib, which would likely be the final major battle of Syria’s civil war. While smaller insurgencies are likely to smolder in pockets of the country remaining outside Assad’s control, Idlib’s fall would spell the end of large-scale armed opposition against the regime.
The fate of Idlib, home to nearly 3 million people, is expected to top the agenda at a Russian-Turkish-Iranian summit in Tehran on Friday. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is likely to push against an all-out, prolonged assault that would send a new wave of refugees to his country’s border.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said efforts would be made to minimise the human cost of the offensive and that he had discussed the matter with Turkish and Syrian officials ahead of the September 7 meeting.
It was not clear what action the US would take if the attack goes ahead. The US and France have each warned that Assad may resort to chemical weapons in the assault. The French Foreign Ministry is “ ready to act” if Assad uses lethal chemical weapons, it said in a statement.
Typical of the conflicting information and fake news accusations that have surrounded previous alleged chemical attacks in Syria, Russia’s Defense Ministry accused the US of collaborating with al-Qaeda-linked rebels to stage an incident that would be a pretext for another round of Western attacks on Assad’s regime. In April 2017, and again a year later, the US carried out limited airstrikes on Syrian targets as punishment for what it said was the use of chemical weapons.

Humanitarian Risk
“A military operation in Idlib is inevitable, but there won’t be any broader war. The US will strike only if chemical weapons are used and it’s proved quickly. Russia will stand on the sidelines there, just like it did the last time,” said Alexander Shumilin, a Middle East analyst at the Institute of Europe in Moscow.
The United Nations has warned that any major attack on Idlib would cause a humanitarian catastrophe.
About 2.9 million people live in Idlib, including 1.4 million Syrians forced out of opposition-held towns and cities by
previous Russian-backed government offensives.
The Syrian conflict began in March 2011 with peaceful protests against the Assad regime, but turned into a civil war after government forces began firing on demonstrators.
The fighting has killed over 500,000 people and, according to the United Nations, displaced almost half of the prewar population of 23 million.