Trump leaves Macron doubting US commitment to Nato

Bloomberg

On a damp Tuesday evening in December, most of France was focused on the Yellow-Vest crisis that had seen demonstrators smashing up Paris.
But holed up in his Elysee palace, President Emmanuel Macron and his team were dealing with a greater threat to the status quo not just in France, but across the western world. A White House contact had warned Macron that Donald Trump was about to announce the pullout of US troops from Syria.
Such a decision would be a body-blow to US allies in the European Union. It risked releasing hundreds of IS veterans and giving Russia’s Vladimir Putin influence over the flow of refugees which has fueled a populist backlash in the EU. For Macron, it heightened his concerns that the US might back away from another, more sacred commitment: the NATO defense alliance.
As Macron prepared for a call with the White House that evening, his view on Syria was informed by a broader realization after 18 months of frustrating efforts to woo Trump: EU leaders can no longer rely on the US to help underpin European security.
This account of how Macron was forced to rethink his entire relationship with Trump is based on conversations over several months with three people who have detailed knowledge of the president’s thinking.
On the call that night in December, the 41-year-old president reminded Trump of his pledge to stand alongside his allies in the fight against terrorism and urged him to consider his responsibilities to Europe. Less than 24 hours later, Trump announced the withdrawal in a tweet.
The decision came as a shock even in Washington, and triggered the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. For Macron and his inner circle, it was a watershed moment.
Though in public, Macron still maintains that the historical alliance between France and the US runs too deep to be jeopardized by disagreements between two presidents, something in him snapped.
The previous month Trump had offered Macron assurances both on Syria and on NATO during a visit to Paris. A few weeks later, the Syria commitment was history. From now on, the French leader will assume that Trump is liable to ditch any commitment he might have made if he decides it serves his interests.
The French leader had invested significant amounts of time and political capital in trying to establish a relationship with Trump since coming to power in Paris in May 2017.
Early last year, people close to him were keen to play up the symmetry between the two presidents. They argued that both were political outsiders who’d shaken up the establishment with their election victories, and their straight-talking style made them a good match personally.
They shared macho handshake games and private talks, watched military parades and had dinner at the Eiffel Tower with a special, meat-heavy menu, to appeal to the US leader’s taste.
“Both of us are probably mavericks,” Macron said in April during a state visit to Washington. “We have a very special relationship.” That effort succeeded in making Macron the guy you call when you want to speak to Europe.
Call logs from both presidents’ offices, which can sometimes be incomplete, indicate the two men held at least 19 phone calls last year. Trump spoke to Merkel just three times and dished out public humiliations to Britain’s Theresa May—in July he trashed her Brexit plans—making it clear where she stood in the White House spheres of influence.
But Trump’s America First policy was always likely to become a problem and that became clear as Europe was drawn into the US trade offensive. Macron’s lobbying effort during his April trip to the White House failed to avert tariffs on European steel and aluminum. Just as he failed to keep the US in the Iran nuclear deal or the Paris Climate Accord.
The phone records suggest that the relationship started to cool after that visit, with their recorded conversations becoming less frequent.