Theresa May’s other option on Brexit

A conventional view is forming about what happens next in Brexit. If, as expected, parliament rejects Theresa May’s deal in January, a second referendum becomes inescapable. But there is an alternative: A general election. While calls for a second referendum have some logic, two big problems explain why May has so far ruled it out.
First, it would be seized upon by Leave campaigners as an exercise in elites bullying the masses until they give the right answer. Then there’s the matter of what is a fair question to ask. Every possible configuration has serious flaws. If parliament rejects May’s deal, it makes sense to give voters a choice between remaining or leaving without a deal. But what if the public chooses to gas it over the cliff?
A no-deal Brexit is a risk hardliners in the Conservative Party are ready to take to achieve their bigger objective of recovering national sovereignty. But it’s not a risk that a sitting prime minister could responsibly run, especially not one who is head of the party that has traditionally stood for sound management of the economy and defended the interests of business.
Many SMEs, the backbone of the party, would be hit particularly hard by a no-deal exit. So too would the opposition Labour Party’s heartlands, which is why it has ruled it out as well.
There are logistical hurdles, but they aren’t insuperable. May would need to ask the EU to extend the Article 50 timetable to allow time for the ballot; permission would probably be granted. To call an early vote, she would need the opposition’s backing – again something they are unlikely to withhold if it could bring down the government.
For May, an election would accomplish several things at once:
First, it could be used to quash once and for all the threat of a no-deal Brexit.
Second, by ruling out no deal and threatening a general election, May would confront the hardliners in her party with a choice: Stay and fight on the party’s terms or form a new conservative-nationalist party.
Third, a general election would smoke out the Labour Party’s deliberately vague position on Brexit.
An election would give May a slight chance of putting the focus where she would want it: On Labour’s vision of a socialist economic policy versus a Conservative offering. Given she is still ahead in the opinion polls, she might have less to fear from an election than her party thinks.
There are, of course, still huge risks in holding a vote. It may fail to produce a clear majority. But if the Conservatives emerged as the largest party, she (or her successor) could still promise a second referendum offering a choice between her deal and remaining in the EU. At least then the threat of a no-deal Brexit would be off the table. For May, the head of a party that routinely destroys its leaders over Europe, the most outlandish way out might of this mess might just be her final option.
—Bloomberg

Therese Raphael writes editorials on European politics and economics for Bloomberg Opinion. She was editorial page editor of the Wall Street Journal Europe