The woman standing between Modi and a majority

Bloomberg

Santu Adhikari scavenges with scarred hands through the rubble of a Tata Motors factory where he once hoped to work. But the plant was torn down before it was finished, and the 28-year-old now spends his days among its ruins in this field outside Kolkata, hunting for scrap iron to sell.
Adhikari blames his grim predicament on one of India’s most powerful regional politicians: West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who triumphed in state polls after leading farmer protests here in the province’s fertile Singur district to drive away the company a decade ago. Narendra Modi swooped in and brought the factory across the country to his home state of Gujarat, part of an investment push that propelled his Bharatiya Janata Party to victory in India’s 2014 general election.
“She won elections and became chief minister because of Singur, and she will lose because of the condition it’s in today,” Adhikari said.
“We support the BJP. When the BJP hold a meeting, all the young people go.”
Modi needs frustrated voters like Adhikari to make gains in India’s fourth-largest state, where his ruling BJP only won two of 42 seats five years ago. Polls show he faces a tough nationwide fight to win re-election on May 23, making it necessary to win in states where the party has previously struggled.
Standing in his way is Banerjee, 64, who still dominates this province of nearly 100 million people and is a possible prime minister candidate if a loose alliance of opposition parties can band together and defeat Modi.
Her All India Trinamool Congress party won 80 percent of the state’s seats in 2014, making her party the strongest opposition force nationally after the Congress Party.
Banerjee has cultivated an image as a populist street fighter, and a survivor: She lived through an attack by stick-wielding thugs early in her career. To now defend her turf from the BJP, she’s turned her campaign into a full-blown assault on Modi’s record, pointing to policy failures like a 2016 cash ban that hit economic growth.
“You cancelled our notes, Mr Modi,” she shouted out in a recent speech outside Kolkata to a large crowd kept back by bamboo dividers. “Now the people of Bengal will cancel your votes and oust you.”
If Banerjee comes back with a similar number of seats and the national election is close, she could be the most important person in forming an opposition coalition government in New Delhi.
Dislodging her seems almost impossible. Even just defending her seat-rich state might be enough to prevent the BJP from cobbling a majority as the ruling party needs to win new territory amid expected losses elsewhere.
Banerjee’s most passionate supporters say she’s a potential prime ministerial candidate. While that’s unlikely — partly because the BJP is expected to retain its grip on New Delhi — she’s using her influence to rally national opposition to Modi. In January, Banerjee hosted powerful opposition leaders from across India.