Thailand, Indonesia risk losing US trade benefit, says Maybank

Bloomberg

Thailand and Indonesia are at risk of losing a special trade status that gives developing economies preferential access to the US market, according to Maybank Kim Eng Research.
Thailand is the second-biggest beneficiary of the decades-old program, known as the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), while Indonesia is the fourth-largest, Maybank analysts led by Chief Economist Suhaimi Ilias said in a note. The US recently dropped India and Turkey from a list of GSP countries.
Major exports for Thailand under GSP include air conditioner components, rubber gloves, processed food, non-alcoholic beverages, motorcycles, reading lenses; for Indonesia under GSP, rubber tires, jewelry and chemicals.
Maybank sees US using currency manipulation and undervaluation labels, GSP removal threats to potentially extract trade concessions or win upper hand in US-China trade war.
“Vietnam, for example, appears to be turning increasingly cautious in its dealings with China’s trade and investments, given increased US scrutiny for fear of being perceived as a backdoor,” Maybank said. Thailand’s goods trade with US was $48.3 billion last year, while for Indonesia it was $31.1 billion.
The US review of Thailand’s status involves market access for American meat and worker rights. For Indonesia, it includes intellectual property rights and trade and investment barriers.
Political turmoil should make investors cautious
Thailand’s economy may be in for far more turbulence than anticipated after the March elections. Social unrest has risen and consumer confidence has sagged since the poll, which this month saw parliament return junta leader General Prayuth Chan-Ocha to power. Critics have denounced the election as rigged in favor of the pro-military camp, and foreign investors are holding back. They are right to take a wait-and-see approach.
On the eve of the March vote, I wrote that there would be only a temporary disruption in Thailand’s economic growth. The drag now appears more likely to be prolonged. Consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in 19 months in May, and first-quarter growth was a paltry 2.8% from a year earlier. That was the economy’s worst performance since 2014, when Prayuth took power in a bloodless military coup. Now, rather than ruling with absolute power, he will have to lead a coalition government with a slim majority.
Political instability rarely inspires confidence, and Thai consumers have already been feeling the pinch from higher oil prices. The junta announced a stimulus package worth about $420 million in April, and further steps are expected. This should help to cushion the economy, though a more sustained recovery may depend on an end to the political turmoil.
Unrest is affecting tourism, which represents more than a fifth of Thailand’s economy. Arrivals fell 0.7% in March from a year earlier to 3.5 million. Visitors from China, which account for the biggest share of tourists, dropped 1.9%. That may not look like much, but the Thai economy will suffer if the slide continues. The country’s Tourism Authority has predicted international visitors will reach a record of more than 40 million in 2019.
The authority is promoting Thailand as an ideal location for lavish Indian weddings and honeymoons, in a sign that it may be preparing for further declines in Chinese tourists. The push appears to be working: Visitors from India surged 35% in March after climbing 14% in February. They remain a small share of overall arrivals, though, totaling about 1.8 million in the year through March.
Sinking international investor confidence and a rocky global economy could also have implications for the Eastern Economic Corridor, a key infrastructure initiative. The government says the $54 billion development plan is on track for completion in 2021. It remains unclear who will helm the project under the new administration, though. As deputy prime minister, Somkid Jatusripitak has overseen the program’s implementation for years and has a golden touch when it comes to encouraging foreign investment. Somkid has yet to be reconfirmed, and there is jockeying within the cabinet for the deputy prime minister’s post.
Another sign that the Thai economy is in flux came from the central bank, which cited “heightened political uncertainties” in opting to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75% on May 8.
It’s too early to tell where all these developments leave investors. It seems unlikely that Prayuth, after steering the country through five years of prosperity, will suddenly discard that progress. The whole world looks to be heading toward an economic slowdown, so cut Thailand a little slack. If the country’s leaders can keep tourism and the Eastern Economic Corridor afloat, the economy will follow. Eventually.