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Bloomberg
A trade complaint asking the Trump administration to impose tariffs
on solar panels could devastate
the US industry, wiping out
two-thirds of solar systems forecast to be installed over the next five years, according to a report by GTM Research.
The case, filed by bankrupt panel manufacturer Suniva Inc., would cause equipment prices to spike in the US and prompt installations to fall to as low as 25 gigawatts from 2018 to 2022, down from GTM’s current forecast of 72.5 gigawatts, GTM said.
The report is the first on how tariffs may affect the industry.
Suniva, based in Georgia, brought the case to the US International Trade Commission in April after filing for Chapter 11, saying tariffs are necessary for domestic manufacturers to compete with a surge of cheap panels from Southeast Asia. It’s asking for duties of 40 cents a watt for solar cells, which now sell for 25 cents to 33 cents a watt. Much of the solar industry has objected, saying cheap panels have been the key to growth in the US
“Suniva’s new trade dispute would strike a devastating blow to the US solar market,†Cory Honeyman, GTM’s associate director of US solar, said in an email. “Shock waves will be felt across all segments.â€
UTILITY SCALE
Suniva is “heartened†that the GTM report acknowledges the damage to the US solar manufacturing industry and disappointed that it fails to quantify the risks in connection with the petition’s proposed remedy, Christian Hudson, an attorney for Suniva, said in a statement. A second company, SolarWorld AG’s US unit, joined the case in May.
GTM found the biggest impact of tariffs would likely be on large-scale unity solar farms, which compete as an alternative to natural gas. Residential rooftop installations are less apt to take a hit.
Solar installations in the US have soared in recent years, largely because of low-cost panels imported from Asia. The price of photovoltaic cells within these panels has declined nearly 50 percent since 2012, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.