
Bloomberg
For almost a year, Josh Scullion has been chasing the sunshine.
The 32-year-old bank worker from Teesside, England, originally booked a package holiday to Mexico in July 2020 with his fiancee and their newborn daughter. That trip was cancelled by tour operator TUI due to a coronavirus flare-up at the destination. A rescheduled Christmas break in the Canary Islands with extended family was nixed by UK lockdowns prompted by a mutation of the disease.
In February, Scullion gambled on a new plan. His flight scheduled to Portugal’s coastal Algarve region turned out to be perfectly timed for the lifting of the UK’s months-long ban on leisure travel. Barring an unforeseen twist, his family will be among the first Brits to break free for warmer climes after being penned up all winter. “It was definitely worth the added stress,†Scullion said. “We have to learn to try to get back to normal. Once I’ve done this once, I’ll have the confidence to travel again.â€
Distant Dreams
After a year of false starts, rogue virus strains and vaccine drama, Brits are finally able to travel again, if only to a handful of “green list†destinations, without having to quarantine on return. Airlines, hotels and restaurants are hopeful, as are sun-starved travellers. Yet there’s no guarantee a fresh virus strain, like the one that’s wreaked havoc in India, won’t disrupt the UK’s reopening plans yet again.
The UK’s success in bringing down infection rates, combined with progress that’s led European sun-spots like Portugal and Italy to also ease border rules, has brought hope to an airline industry that’s suffered repeated setbacks in the past 15 months.
“I see a step approach in which airlines feed routes into relatively safe countries,†said Peter Morris, chief economist at flight tracker Cirium. The UK’s wet weather is “a very strong push factor†for demand and some routes might fill up quite rapidly.
The highly transmissible Indian mutation could yet thwart the UK comeback. The government has warned it could lead to a major surge in cases, and is accelerating its vaccine rollout to people as young as 35 in an attempt to contain it.
In a Bloomberg TV interview, Ryanair Holdings CEO Michael O’Leary said he’s confident vaccines are effective against it. Yet should the threat rise, there’s a risk of new lockdowns that could put Europe’s reopening into reverse, his finance chief, Neil Sorahan, said separately.
The government has moved with caution, placing just 12 countries and territories on its green list. There are strict entry requirements even for many of those counterparts, and the UK’s stipulation that all returning
passengers must take coronavirus tests will drive up the cost of a getaway.
Portugal, the only major holiday zone on the list, will be the main focus for Brits, with
Ryanair and EasyJet Plc alone adding more than 300,000
seats there since the UK’s recent announcement.