S China Sea row verdict needs to set precedent

The world’s focus will be on Beijing rather than The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), the world’s oldest international arbitration tribunal, set to issue a written decision on Tuesday after the Philippines challenged China’s claim over much of the strategic waterway, China South Sea, in 2013.
In an anticipation of the verdict, China has vowed it would not comply with the ruling by a tribunal with “no jurisdiction” over the issue.
Coastal states contest China’s claims over most of the Sea, even waters approaching neighbouring countries, as its sovereign territory, basing its arguments on Chinese maps dating back to the 1940s marked with a so-called “nine-dash line”.
With its growing economy and might, China seeks to control the Sea and the shipping lanes that connect East Asia with Europe and the Middle East, and over $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes through them annually.
Legal experts expect the court in The Hague is likely to rule in Manila’s favour — in a decision with far-reaching ramifications- but defiant Beijing is bent on brushing it aside. With Brexit weighing on the issue, social media users and activists in the Philippines called on Monday on the eve of the crucial tribunal ruling that it is time for China to do a #CHexit from the South China Sea. This demonstrates how the country is rallied behind the issue.
In a show of support, Washington — which has key defence treaties with many regional allies — last week sent warships to patrol close to some of the reefs and islands claimed by China. While flexing its muscles, the US, on Friday also “urged both parties to comply with the ruling and all claimants to avoid provocative actions or statements”.
China seems not to be amused by an expected verdict. Its state-run media said on Friday Beijing will not take “a single step back” in the waterway.
As tension mounts, China launched drills in the sea on Friday. The navy carried out combat exercises with live missiles according to the PLA Daily, the
military’s official newspaper.
In a balancing act, newly-elected Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said he was optimistic of a favourable ruling, yet offered to hold conciliatory talks with China. Meanwhile, Philippine Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay also offered a carrot to Beijing by suggesting Manila can share natural resources with China.
Apparently, a tension that will surround the verdict may even overshadow it. The whole China has been mobilised to justify Beijing’s non-compliance with the award, citing, among other things, the Tribunal’s lack of jurisdiction and the political motivations of the Philippines in bringing the case.
Undoubtedly, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) will be the basis for a historic court judgment in the dispute.
Even though PCA wants to set a precedent through the ruling, Beijing prefers bilateral talks with other claimants, seeing it as the only way to address the dispute. This shows China mistrusts the tribunal, and seeks to strike compromises with each claimant without risking its interests.
The verdict assumes significance as it will open a new chapter in similar
maritime disputes that are still raging and remain unsolved.