Russia-led Syria talks end with truce pledge amid Iran tensions

Bloomberg

Russian-led talks on Syria ended with agreement on Tuesday to bolster a cease-fire even as apparent disputes with Iran, a staunch supporter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, threaten to hold up efforts to end the six-year civil war.
Russia, Turkey and Iran will set up “a trilateral mechanism to observe and ensure full compliance with the cease-fire, prevent any provocations and determine all modalities” of the truce established last month, the countries said in a joint statement at the end of two days of negotiations in the Kazakh capital, Astana.
While the Astana meeting provided an effective platform for talks between the Syrian government and opposition groups, there’s an “urgent necessity to step up efforts to jumpstart the negotiation process,” they said in the statement. Representatives of the Syrian armed opposition should take part in United Nations-led talks that are due to resume in Geneva on Feb. 8, they said.
Amid deteriorating relations with the Obama administration over a failed peace effort in September, Russia seized the diplomatic initiative after its forces helped Assad to expel rebel fighters from Aleppo, once Syria’s largest city, last month —a turning point in a war that’s killed more than 300,000. Still, the cease-fire in Syria brokered by Russia and Turkey isn’t holding everywhere, with fighting continuing in particular near the capital Damascus.
The effort by Russia, Turkey and Iran, the three countries with forces on the ground in Syria, suffered a setback on Monday when opposition groups rejected face-to-face meetings with government representatives at the talks. They negotiated instead in separate rooms, through mediators.

Spoiler Role
Iran could play the role of a spoiler in the Russian efforts to get the cease-fire on track, said a Western diplomat monitoring the Astana meeting, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of diplomatic protocol.
The Astana meeting “is a very important and symbolic step that will allow us to reach a new stage in the negotiations,” Alexander Lavrentiev, the Kremlin envoy to Syria who heads Russia’s delegation at the talks, told reporters earlier.
Tensions are increasing between Russia and Iran, which have fundamentally different ambitions in Syria, said Alexei Malashenko, a Middle East analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center. Tehran is determined to push home Assad’s advantage while Moscow wants to scale down its military involvement, he said.
“The Iranian role makes Assad less dependent on Russia and able to act militarily, and this is very dangerous because it undermines the Kremlin’s efforts to promote some kind of political process in Syria,” Malashenko said.

‘Want Action’
The fact that government forces continue to break the truce means “it hasn’t been implemented,” Osama Abu Zaid, a member of the opposition delegation, told reporters on Tuesday. “We are expecting more than warnings” from Russia to Assad and “want action,” he said.
The Astana meeting is part of a joint approach announced in Moscow last month by Russia, Turkey and Iran. While Russia and Iran support Assad’s regime, Turkey—a key backer of the armed groups opposing the Syrian leader—helped to negotiate the truce accord signed by seven extremist groups representing 62,000 fighters and the Damascus government.
The opposition has welcomed Russia’s role but criticized Iran, which supports militias including Lebanon’s Hezbollah that are fighting alongside Assad’s forces, for continuing to support attacks in spite of the agreement to halt violence.
While the US was left out of the latest peace effort, the American ambassador to Kazakhstan attended the talks as an observer. Russia had invited aides to new President Donald Trump, who has promised to work together on combating IS.
There’ll be “some very hard bargaining between Russia and Iran” over the truce, according to Malashenko, the Carnegie analyst.
“The Kremlin will put huge pressure on Assad, but in whose interests is the cease-fire?” he said. “The opposition needs a breathing space and Russia wants the truce, but for Iran and Assad it’s a threat.”