Ramaphosa holds aces in countdown to S African vote

Bloomberg

As South Africa’s ruling party battles to bounce back from a succession of scandals and extend its quarter-century monopoly on power in next year’s elections, it has a key advantage: a wounded opposition.
By forcing the unpopular Jacob Zuma to stand down as president in February, the African National Congress deprived the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) of their biggest electoral asset. The DA has also been dogged by infighting in its Cape Town stronghold, while the EFF is facing allegations that it received funds illicitly diverted from a failed bank.
That’s boosted the odds President Cyril Ramaphosa, 66, can win a strong enough mandate in May to strengthen his grip on the party and follow through on pledges to clamp down on graft and revive a flagging economy.
“In the current political context, many investors would probably consider a strong mandate for the ANC — in the 55 to 60 percent range — an optimal outcome,” said Anne Fruhauf, vice president at New York-based risk adviser Teneo. “The assumption being that this will help President Ramaphosa to strengthen his mandate and policy clout within the ANC and contain the EFF’s influence.”
Polls commissioned by Ipsos, the Institute of Race Relations and the ANC itself all show the party maintaining its grip on parliament, though down on the 62 percent it won in 2016.

Corruption Backlash
Just two years ago, the ANC appeared at risk of losing the majority it’s held since the first multiracial elections in 1994 when its support tumbled to a record low of 54 percent in a 2016 municipal vote — a backlash against endemic corruption during Zuma’s almost nine-year rule. The DA secured control of several big cities, while the EFF’s populist policies bolstered its support among young, urban voters disenchanted with rampant poverty and an unemployment rate that now stands at 27.5 percent, one the world’s highest.
The ANC began to claw back ground after Ramaphosa, a former labour union leader who helped negotiate an end to apartheid and led the drafting of the country’s first democratic constitution, edged out Zuma’s ex-wife and preferred successor, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, to win control of the party in December.
Since assuming the nation’s presidency, Ramaphosa has fired several ministers and senior managers of state companies implicated in graft, and spearheaded a drive to attract $100 billion in new investment.
Revelations that Ramaphosa’s campaign for the ANC leadership received a donation from a firm with links to his son and he gave incorrect information about it to parliament also threaten to undermine his anti-graft drive and alienate voters.