Pro-Spain Catalans to punish Rajoy for ‘timid response’

Bloomberg

Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party is facing substantial losses in Thursday’s Catalan elections as pro-Spain voters punish the prime minister for his cautious response to the push for independence. The PP could lose as many as eight of its 11 seats in the Catalan assembly as voters opposed to secession shift their support to the more hawkish Ciudadanos, according to polling analysis by
Kiko Llaneras, the founder of political-risk adviser Quantio.
The PP needs at least five lawmakers to have its own parliamentary group in Catalonia, otherwise it will suffer a cut in funding and lose speaking time on the floor of the chamber. In the best-case scenario, the party would retain nine seats, Llaneras projected.
Ciudadanos seized the initiative among Catalans opposed to independence during the crisis in October, repeatedly calling on Rajoy to shut down the rebel administration as the 61-year-old premier stalled. The party, led by
Ines Arrimadas, 36, is set to
be rewarded with a wave of new support while PP los-
ses may damage Rajoy’s claim that he’s best placed to hold Spain together.
“A bad result for the People’s Party in Catalonia would hurt Rajoy’s position in the rest of Spain, especially as the guarantee to stop the independence,” said Veronica Fumanal, a political marketing expert, who
has advised both Ciudadanos and the Socialists. “How can Rajoy deal with Catalonia from that marginal position? Such weakness will be exploited by Ciudadanos for sure.”
Rajoy waited almost a month after an illegal referendum on Oct 1 before ousting the separatist government
and dissolving the Catalan
parliament. In the next legislature, Llaneras projects that Ciudadanos will be the second-biggest party with 32 seats, though the three separatists groups will still have
68 between them, just enough for a majority.