Opposition fortunes wane as Tanzania president Magufuli rules supreme

Bloomberg

Two years into his rule, Tanzanian President John Magufuli has some unexpected new fans: his political opponents. His chief rival in the 2015 vote, Edward Lowassa, has praised his reforms and urged others to support them. Another challenger became one of his regional commissioners, while two opposition lawmakers recently defected to the ruling party and will run as candidates in February by-elections.
These could be signs that Magufuli, who’s nicknamed “the bulldozer,” is finding popular support for his bids to tackle graft and challenge foreign companies like Barrick Gold Corp and Bharti Airtel Ltd for more revenue. But, following the arrests of other politicians and shuttering of several news outlets, some analysts say it also points to the decline of political dissent.
Tanzania’s opposition was always limited. Magufuli’s Chama Cha Mapinduzi party and its earlier iterations have ruled ever since the nation was unified in 1964, winning all five multi-party elections that began in 1995. All the same, rights groups and the opposition say there was leeway for criticism — until recently. It comes as opposition movements elsewhere in East Africa feel the squeeze as leaders from Burundi to Uganda further entrench their reigns.
“Backing the opposition in an authoritarian state is backing a losing horse,” said Dan Paget, a doctoral candidate researching Tanzania at the University of Oxford. “People are defecting from the opposition not only because they love Magufuli, but because they fear him.”
The detention of some lawmakers last year for allegedly making inflammatory statements against the government sent a “strong message,” according to Aidan Eyakuze, executive director of civil-society group Twaweza East Africa.
Politicians may also be seeking career advancement, according to Benson Bana, political science lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam. “Some don’t see that the opposition will win State House anytime soon, so see working for the ruling party as a chance to shape policy,” Bana said.