Nord Stream 2 could sever ties

US President Donald Trump is furious at Germany for many reasons, not all of them fathomable. In phone conversations with Angela Merkel, he’s allegedly called the German chancellor “stupid” and denigrated her in “near-sadistic” tones. Though this be madness, as the Bard might say, there is — on rare occasions — method in it. One such case is Nord Stream 2.
It is an almost-finished gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea between Russia and Germany, running right next to the original Nord Stream, which has been in operation since 2011. “We’re supposed to protect Germany from Russia, but Germany is paying Russia billions of dollars for energy coming from a pipeline,” Trump roared at a recent campaign rally. “Excuse me, how does that work?”
As is his wont, the president thereby conflated many things. One of his grievances is that Germany has long been scrimping on its military spending, in effect free-riding on US protection, for which he wants to punish his “delinquent” ally. Another is that the European Union, which he considers Germany’s marionette, allegedly takes advantage of the US in business. Trump also wants to sell Europe more American liquefied natural gas (LNG). But Trump isn’t the only American trying to stop Nord Stream 2. In December, Congress aimed sanctions at a Swiss company that supplied the ships to lower the pipes into the water. This delayed the pipeline’s launch. Then Russia sent another vessel to finish the job. So this week a bipartisan group of Senators moved to widen the sanctions in order to kill Nord Stream 2 altogether.
The problem is that if this new round becomes law, it will amount to an all-out economic assault on Europe. It could hit individuals and companies from many countries that are only tangential to the project — by underwriting insurance for the pipeline, say, or providing port services to the ships involved.
Considering this an instance of illegal American extraterritoriality, the German government now plans to make the EU retaliate against the US. Trump, in the heat of America’s “silly season” leading up to November, could then strike back with new tariffs on German cars or a full-blown trade war. The transatlantic alliance, which was already frayed, is close to tearing.
To me, this situation increasingly resembles “chicken,” a classic in game theory. The question is whether both sides are merely feigning recklessness (as the game assumes) or are already too far gone. And that applies just as much to the Germans. They like to play the reasonable side in transatlantic fights but deserve just as much blame as Trump and Congress for causing this mess.
If Russia were a normal country, the German rationale for this pipeline might make sense. Europe will need more gas, especially to replace much dirtier coal and to supplement renewable sources of energy on the way to becoming carbon-neutral. And to get that gas, it makes sense to diversify — between Norwegian imports, American LNG or any other sort, including the Russian stuff. And piping it into Europe along the shortest route — through the Baltic — is efficient.

—Bloomberg