NATO finalizes military build-up to counter Russian agression

Brussels / AFP

NATO foreign ministers met on Thursday to finalise the alliance’s biggest military build-up since the end of the Cold War to counter what they see as a more aggressive and unpredictable Russia.
At a Warsaw summit in July, NATO leaders will sign-off on the revamp which puts more troops into east European member states as part of a “deter and dialogue” strategy, meant to reassure allies they will not be left in the lurch in any repeat of the Ukraine crisis.
Ministers will also discuss the growing challenges on NATO’s southern flank, from conflict in Syria and Iraq to instability across North Africa amid fears terrorist groups such as IS can exploit the turmoil.
In November, IS attacks in Paris left 130 dead and fellow extremists followed that up with more killings in March in Brussels—home to NATO HQ, the European Union and a host of diplomatic and corporate offices.
The EU is also grappling with the worst migrant crisis since the end of World War II and the bloc is anxious to increase cooperation with NATO to tackle the problem, notably trying to bolster the UN-backed government in Libya where IS has recently gained ground.
EU foreign affairs head Federica Mogherini will join the NATO ministers on Friday to discuss the possibilities.
Of the 28 NATO member states, 22 also belong to the EU where Mogherini is overseeing a review of the bloc’s global security strategy. ‘Sober discussion’ on Russia
US Ambassador to NATO Douglas Lute said on Wednesday foreign ministers would have a “very sober discussion on dealing with Russia… which essentially has thrown out the rulebook.”
“This is not the predictable partner we thought we had,” Lute said, adding: “We might not have a partner open to dialogue but we have to show NATO is always open to dialogue.”
A focal point is the signing on Thursday of an accession accord with Montenegro—yet another bone of contention, this time over the future of the Balkans, home to historic Slav allies and a key strategic interest for Russia.
Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and its 2014 annexation of Crimea stung NATO into action after years of complacency and defence cuts following the fall of the Soviet Union.
Moscow however says NATO is encroaching on its borders, while Washington builds a European missile defence shield which
undercuts Russia’s nuclear
deterrent.
Mutual suspicion runs deep—former NATO deputy supreme commander Richard Shirreff warned on Wednesday the West could find itself at war with Russia next year unless it boosted its defences. His book, “2017 War With Russia,” is based on what the publishers said were NATO “war gaming scenarios”—in this case, Russia opening a land corridor to Crimea and seizing the Baltic states.
James Stavridis, NATO supreme allied commander for Europe in 2009-13, said Shirreff got it right about Russian action in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and was likely right again now.

Avoid new arms race
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned on Wednesday against the dangers of a new arms race, stressing the alliance’s response was purely “defensive, proportionate and in line with our international obligations.”
NATO wanted dialogue with Russia to ease tensions and avoid potentially dangerous incidents getting out of control, he said.
NATO suspended all practical cooperation with Russia over Ukraine but left a channel of communication open through what is known as the NATO-Russia Council (NRC).
Stoltenberg convened the first NRC since June 2014 last month, which he said produced a “frank” but also “useful” exchange.
NATO diplomatic sources said some member states wanted another NRC before the Warsaw summit, as at least a gesture of good faith, but others are reluctant, seeing no reason to cut Russia any slack.
“I think there will be a meeting… a number of allies want it quite badly and the rest of us think it is not worth fighting about,” one source said, downplaying the NRC’s importance.

EU’s Mogherini eyes sanction extension against Russia 

Berlin / AFP

The EU’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini expects the bloc to extend sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine, according to remarks published on Thursday by Die Welt daily.
Asked if the embargoes targeting Russia’s oil, defence and banking sectors would be extended when they expire in July, Mogherini told the newspaper: “I expect them to be.”
“The heads of state and governments had required that the sanctions be lifted when the Minsk agreement is fully implemented. But, that’s something that we haven’t achieved yet,” she said, referring to a peace deal agreed in the Belarus capital between Kiev and Moscow.
The EU imposed the heavy penalties in the summer of 2014 against Russia, and they are due to expire at the end of July. The bloc’s leaders are however due to meet in June, when they are expected to make a decision on these sanctions.
Mogherini underlined the importance of implementing the Minsk deal.
“For a long time, we considered Russia as a strategic partner,” she said, adding “that is no longer the case, although it remains a strategic country.”Whether or not Russia recovers its “partner” status would depend on the Russian government, as well as on the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, she said. “It is decisive for us that the Minsk agreement is completely implemented and that the Ukraine conflict is peacefully resolved,” she said.