Macron in Scholz’s shadow as Ukraine pressures mount

Bloomberg

Days before German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany would ship 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron surprised allies by declaring that France would contribute 18 Caesar cannons and 40 AMX10 armored vehicles, and teased that he was still considering whether to send the embattled country a squadron of more powerful Leclerc tanks.
The move was met with cheers from defense experts — and was quickly overshadowed by the news from Germany.
While the declaration marked a public shift for the French president, who has gone from being reticent about broadcasting France’s involvement in the war in Ukraine to wanting to publicize his country’s military aid, it also underscored the extent to which he is operating under a different set of expectations than his German counterpart, who has been under significant international pressure to step up material support for Ukraine.
This double-standard is partly because Germany is Europe’s biggest economy. It’s also due to Macron’s communication missteps in the early days of the war, when he attempted to broker talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and cautioned allies about the importance of “not humiliating” Russia. And perhaps most significantly, it’s because the French leader failed to convince Putin to “de-escalate” and withdraw troops from Belarus, despite claiming he had obtained a promise from the Russian leader that he would do so.
As a result, “macroning” is now a verb in Ukrainian used to refer to people who talk a big game but don’t actually deliver.
Ironically, as Macron has championed the need for Europe to develop its defense industry independently from the US, he’s also called attention to the fact that France’s wartime contributions to Ukraine have been dramatically lower than Germany’s.
The French government says it has spent more than 600 million euros in military aid to Ukraine, not including equipment costs. Last week, the defense ministry announced plans to send Kyiv 12 more Caesar cannons produced by Versailles-based Nexter and a radar made by Thales SA. While Paris does outspend Berlin when it comes to share of GDP devoted to defense, France ranked sixth in spending on military aid between January to November, according to the most recent data compiled by the Kiel Institute.
In response to questions, a spokesman for the French defense ministry said that France provides equipment when Ukraine requests it and if it makes sense on the ground.
With the question of tanks still active, Macron has not ruled out sending some of France’s 225 Leclercs, a model no longer in use in any other European country. Whatever decision he makes, it will likely be tempered more by domestic reasons than external pressures.
French officials have been playing down the possibility. If the shipment were to happen, said people involved in private deliberations, it would probably be limited to a handful of tanks, a squadron of 14 or less. That’s because the tanks aren’t in production anymore, and the army wants to keep them and their operators and mechanics on French soil.
“Sending the Leclerc would be costly and not very practical on the ground, including for the Ukrainian army, so if that’s done, it’d be for political reasons,” said Jean-Pierre Maulny, the deputy director of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs.
In recent weeks, parties from both sides of the political spectrum have advocated for giving parliament a say in the decision. Influential French voices – including a former junior minister for European affairs and a former ambassador to the US – have expressed concern that Russia would perceive the move as an escalation.