Kim puts North Korea in position to outlast his reign

Bloomberg

Whatever the state of Kim Jong-un’s health, he has already put North Korea in its strongest position to resist US pressure in decades.
Eight years after Kim filled the power vacuum left by the death of his reclusive father, Kim Jong Il, North Korea is more secure and less isolated. The 36-year-old supreme leader has achieved two key marks of legitimacy long sought by his predecessors: a nuclear arsenal that can credibly deter an American attack and a personal relationship with the US president, including three face-to-face meetings with Donald Trump.
While North Korea is still among the world’s most impoverished nations, living standards are rising for the ruling elite in Pyongyang. Kim has shown he can endure crushing economic sanctions, illustrated by a United Nations report accusing the regime of widespread evasion. Moreover, the Kim dynasty holds a renewed pledge of strategic support from its ultimate guarantor, China.
“The country has pole-vaulted in their nuclear-destruction potential and missile-delivery capabilities compared to capabilities under grandfather or father Kim,” said Soo Kim, a Rand Corp policy analyst who specialises in Korean peninsula issues. “The specter of a North Korean nuclear attack breeds enough unease in the international community to lean more towards accommodation than confrontation.”
That’s why many longtime observers of North Korea say the current uncertainty surrounding Kim Jong-un is less consequential than past succession scares. Speculation has been swirling about Kim’s health since he dropped out of state media last week, failing for the first time to attend events to celebrate the April 15 birthday of his late grandfather, Kim Il Sung.
US officials said they were told Kim was in critical condition after cardiovascular surgery, while South Korea said he was conducting “normal activities” in a rural part of the country. No matter what, North Korea leaders have strong incentives to preserve the regime and Kim’s strategy of seeking sanctions relief from the US by building a nuclear arsenal.
Indeed, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, who has traveled to Pyongyang four times, indicated that the dispute between the two countries would persist if a successor such as Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, took power. “The challenge remains the same, the goal remains unchanged,” Pompeo said on Fox News. “Whoever is leading North Korea, we want them to give up their nuclear program.”
The US retains control over trade restrictions that held North Korea’s economic growth to 1.8% last year, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development, following its biggest slump in decades in 2018. Although the regime has found ways around the restrictions, including cyber-heists and high-seas oil transfers, North Korea can’t tolerate the embargo forever.
“People that say Kim doesn’t have to worry about sanctions are likely viewing the situation too optimistically, because North Korea is under sanctions like never before,” said Kim Keun-sik, a Far Eastern studies professor at Kyungnam University.