Kenyatta risks ‘pyrrhic victory’ in Kenyan poll rerun

Bloomberg

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta is certain to win re-election in Thursday’s vote rerun after his main rival, Raila Odinga, withdrew from the race, but his victory could prove to be a hollow one. “It would be a Pyrrhic victory for Kenyatta, especially if opposition strongholds boycott as they have promised,” said Nanjala Nyabola, a Nairobi-based independent political analyst. “It may have serious implications for his ability to govern.”
The Supreme Court, which annulled the Aug. 8 vote, said on Wednesday it couldn’t hear a petition to cancel the rerun because of a lack of a quorum. On Monday, Western envoys proposed a delay, which electoral commission Chairman Wafula Chebukati has indicated he also favors by saying he can’t guarantee the election will be credible and is meeting opposition to carrying out reforms from other commissioners. Kenyatta, 55, wants the ballot go ahead.
An open-ended opposition rejection of Kenyatta’s right to hold office would exacerbate a political standoff that’s already unnerved investors, scared off tourists and dragged down the nation’s stocks and international bonds. As many as 67 people have died in protests since the last vote results were announced, according to rights groups such as Amnesty International, and the opposition has vowed to stage protests until its demands for electoral reform are met.
World figures from Pope Francis to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres have joined calls for restraint. There’s a risk that Kenya could be plunged into chaos should the Independent Electoral & Boundaries Commission forge ahead with the vote, said Ndung’u Wainaina, executive director at the International Center for Policy and Conflict. “The IEBC can invoke constitutional provisions and call off the election,” Wainaina said by phone from Nairobi. If it does go ahead, “they should be prepared to live with the consequences,” he said. The European Union and the Atlanta-based Carter Center both announced they’re reducing the size of their delegations to monitor the elections, citing security concerns.
“We have assessed the safety of our observers considering the extreme tension, disruptions of polling preparations, and strong criticism that has been made of the international community,” the EU Election Observation Mission said in an emailed statement. “Based on this, we have had to reconsider the extent to which we can
observe across the country.”
Two months of ethnic violence that followed a disputed 2007 vote showed just how violent Kenyan politics can turn — more than 1,100 people were killed and about 350,000 were forced to flee their homes. The unrest hammered the economy, with the growth rate plummeting to 1.7 percent in 2008, from 7.1 percent a year earlier. Kenya is the East African hub for companies including General Electric Co. and
Toyota Motor Corp.