Keeping kids out of school is the right idea

The coronavirus epidemic has forced governments to make difficult choices. One of the hardest — and perhaps most symbolic — is whether to shut down schools to contain the contagion.
Any generalised lockdown would inevitably take a toll on the children and their working parents. The limited evidence we have, however, shows that this measure can be effective in slowing down an outbreak. In turn, this could provide much-needed respite to hospitals, which are coming under severe pressure as the virus continues to spread.
As the number of individuals tested positive to Covid-19 globally crossed the 100,000 mark, governments across the world are taking the Draconian step of making kids and teenagers stay at home. Hong Kong, Japan and Italy have shut down all their schools. Other countries — including France, Germany and the UK — might end up facing the same dilemma.
The apparent paradox of this decision is that children appear to be the age group that appears least in danger from this virus. A study of more than 44,000 infected people in China found that only one individual younger than 20 died because of Covid-19, out of 965 confirmed cases. (For comparision, the World Health Organization puts the overall mortality rate for this coronavirus at 3.4% worldwide — though another February study put it at 1%.) Governments often consider shutting down schools to protect “vulnerable” children, but for the coronavirus this is not the case.
The fear, however, is that schools are a dangerous vehicle of contagion, as students spend long periods of time jostled together. It’s also harder to ask kids to follow basic hygienic principles — such as washing one’s hands — which are the most effective ways to limit this outbreak’s spread. A study of 391 cases in Shenzen, China, shows that children are as likely as adults to be carrying the virus, even if it’s much less deadly for them. Keeping them at home may make their parents and grandparents safer.
Covid-19 only appeared a few months ago, so we don’t have enough evidence to determine what kinds of social distancing measures work best to stop its spread. However, scientists have looked at the impact of closing down schools on other viruses. The findings are mixed: A review of 79 studies on seasonal and pandemic influenza found that closing down schools may have an impact in delaying a contagion, though it’s hard to be certain. School closures typically occur alongside other measures, so scientists have trouble in pinning down what matters the most.
Yet this measure appears to be helpful when there’s a risk that the healthcare system is overwhelmed. This is the biggest threat from Covid-19: Its lethality appears to be much lower than for other viruses such as Sars or Mers. However, it spreads more easily and forces about 10% of infected individuals into intensive-care units, which only have limited capacity.
As the coronavirus epidemic spreads, more governments may choose to close their schools. For all its costs, it’s an option they should consider.
—Bloomberg