Johnson’s change of direction on Covid-19

Back in April, Britain’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam told a news conference that the UK’s relative performance in combating the coronavirus would become clear only once there were
comparative figures on excess mortality (deaths above a five-year average). Shortly afterward, the government stopped showing charts with comparative death rates altogether.
It wasn’t hard to see why: The emerging trends were deeply unflattering to Britain. But Boris Johnson’s administration also had a point. Covid-related deaths are recorded unevenly across countries, making comparisons difficult. Pressed on the issue, the prime minister said there would be time for drawing conclusions about relative performance later and he promised an independent investigation.
The UK Office of National Statistics released a trove of excess mortality data that allow more reliable comparisons to be made. The ONS got around the comparability problem by using total mortality figures, rather than simply Covid-related deaths, and drawing on data from Eurostat, which sets out clear criteria for reporting.
The data confirmed the picture the government was eager not to highlight in those charts: England had the highest excess mortality rate in Europe. Understanding why the government made the decisions it did as the pandemic arrived in Europe will occupy journalists, historians and Parliament for many years. The data can’t provide those answers, but they do give an indication of how Britain can better arm itself in fighting a second wave, or preparing for the next virus.
It will be unforgivable for the government to again drag its feet on lockdowns, ignore what’s happening elsewhere in Europe and not prepare adequately for a medical emergency. Health Secretary Matt Hancock surprised many with new lockdown restrictions on a large swath of northern England, including Greater Manchester. The new mantra seems to be “better safe than sorry,” although the timing and lack of clarity about the data used for the decision have created confusion that won’t help with getting people to comply.
What made the UK the most deadly place for Covid wasn’t big spikes in mortality in badly hit cities or regions. Some places in Italy and Spain suffered worse. In Bergamo, the peak of deaths was 857% the normal rate; in Madrid it was 432%. Brent in London had the highest UK peak at 357% of the usual level.
The real killer in Britain — literally — was that excess mortality continued longer than in any other European country. That may reflect the lockdown-lite policies Johnson pursued in the early stages. Britain’s slowness in shutting things down and its less stringent rules allowed the virus to spread faster and farther, making it harder to suppress.
The UK’s excess mortality rates were also more geographically dispersed than in most of western Europe. That could be due to a number of factors.

—Bloomberg