Joe Biden can’t ignore North Korea’s missiles much longer

Between Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan and Afghanistan, President Joe Biden has more than enough global problems to focus on. Unfortunately, he needs to add one more: North Korea.
Dictator Kim Jong Un has ushered in the new year with a barrage of missile launches — 11 so far, including what now appears to have been the first test of an intermediate-range ballistic missile since 2017. Kim has reasons for now to avoid provoking a major crisis, which would overshadow his ally China’s hosting of the Winter Olympics. But events are trending in a dangerous direction. Kim’s regime has again threatened to restart tests of long-range ballistic missiles that could reach the United States, as well as nuclear weapons. That would bring him into direct confrontation with the US for the first time in more than four years.
It’s understandable that Biden would want to downplay this issue, which bedeviled his four predecessors and shows little promise of resolution. Since coming to office, he has left the door open to talks without preconditions. The US has backed the idea of sending humanitarian aid to the North, whose economy has cratered since Kim shut the country’s borders to prevent the spread of Covid-19. New US sanctions have been relatively modest. Kim still refuses to engage, demanding that the US first abandon its supposed “hostile policy” towards his country.
Ignoring the North Korean leader, however, only allows him more time to improve the range and power of his arsenal. If diplomacy can’t be revived, Biden will sooner or later find himself forced into responding to a North Korean provocation, risking escalation and diverting energy and attention from other US priorities.
The White House should be laying the groundwork for a reenergised approach now. It should seek speedy confirmation of a new ambassador to South Korea and use three-way talks with Seoul and Tokyo to build consensus on next steps. It should also consult closely with Russia and China, which share an interest in preventing another nuclear test.
Equally important, the US should look for ways to counter Kim’s accusations of hostile intent. North Korea has declined donations of Covid-19 vaccines twice already, ostensibly because of a lack of cases but more likely because of worries about the effectiveness and side effects of shots made by Sinovac Biotech Ltd. and AstraZeneca Plc. As a goodwill gesture, the US could funnel supplies of mRNA vaccines from Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc. to the North through the World Health Organisation. Desperately needed food aid should also be on offer.
Finally, US negotiators would do well to devise new confidence-building measures. Kim isn’t about to start rolling back his nuclear program. Instead, a “freeze-for-freeze” arrangement whereby the US and South Korea suspend military drills in return for a halt to Kim’s missile tests might at least slow the North’s progress. The US could also work toward a declaration ending the Korean War, a priority for Seoul and one in which Pyongyang has shown at least some interest.
If Kim rejects such entreaties, of course, the US must also look for ways to turn up the pressure, in particular by tightening enforcement of current sanctions and cracking down on the cybercrime that nets the North hundreds of millions of dollars annually. With his missile tests, Kim is seeking to strengthen his leverage. Biden should do no less.
—Bloomberg