Japan’s taste for Brexit lamb may not be enough for UK farmers

Bloomberg

The UK government has a message for British sheep farmers worried about the impact of a no-deal Brexit: Look East.
“I would point to the market in Japan, that has just been opened to Welsh and British sheep,” Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns told BBC Radio.
“That is a significant market for which we haven’t really scratched the surface yet.”
Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits Wales as sheep farmers express fears that leaving the European Union without a deal on October 31 will trigger tariffs that effectively exclude them from their biggest export market.
There are about 10 million sheep in Wales — more than three for every human inhabitant — and Johnson has said Brexit will allow the UK to export more food and farm produce around the world.
But the prospect of selling sheep to Japan is unlikely to appease farmers. Even though Japan ended a 20-year ban on British lamb and beef — imposed after the mad cow disease crisis — it has yet to agree to roll over the trading arrangements the UK enjoys as a member of the EU. The UK has said an agreement won’t be reached before Brexit day.
There’s also the matter of market size. According to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, the EU accounts for 89 percent of the 392 million pounds ($477 million) of sheep meat products the UK exports every year.
By contrast, it estimates the Japanese market for British lamb will be worth a total of 52 million pounds spread over the first five years of market access. The UK will also face stiff competition from New Zealand and Australia, it says.
“There’s no other outlet that could come close, where volume is concerned, at least in the near-term” to offsetting the loss of the EU market, the AHDB said in a February report.