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World is waiting to see where the mutual admiration between President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will proceed to. Will this wooing translate into a long-term courtship?
Trump called Putin smart guy. The Republican said, “if Putin likes me, it’s an asset.†Trump also initially out-rightly rejected the intelligence agencies’ findings about Russian hacking and called it a political witch hunt.
On the other hand Russians celebrated Trump’s victory in the presidential election. And it was something unprecedented. Russia is giving Donald Trump extensive television coverage, which is quite an unusual.
Putin came to Trump’s defense himself, when he said claims in the leaked dossier, such as Russia having a tape of the billionaire-turned-politician, are fabrications and frivolous. The Kremlin has also reached out to Trump’s transition team with an invitation to send a representative to talks it’s sponsoring on ending Syria’s civil war later this month, but so far no decision has been announced.
At the same time, initial euphoria over having a Putin admirer in the White House is giving way to skepticism that any meaningful detente with the US can be achieved.
The raging controversies over alleged Russian hacking to help Trump get elected and a leaked memos claiming the Kremlin has blackmail material on him has transfixed Washington. A bill has been introduced to impose even harsher sanctions on Russia. And many of Trump’s picks have differed from their boss over Russian hacking scandal. Trump’s nominee for secretary of state nominee Rex Tillerson agrees with the intelligence finding that Putin himself ordered the hacking. Although Russian leader has repeatedly denied involvement, Trump’s cabinet nominees want tougher lines on Russia in their confirmation hearings than the Kremlin anticipated. The hard-line comments by Rex Tillerson and James Mattis, his pick for defense, were mainly posturing to ensure Senate approval.
And there is a sensible shift of expectations in the Kremlin. The leadership understands clearly now that restoring ties won’t be easy and that more scandals will worsen the chances.
Trump’s impulsivity and contradictory statements are as worrying for Russia. He talked about easing the penalties imposed after Putin annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Last month, Trump said the US should “greatly†expand its nuclear capability and seemed to call for a new arms race. But recently he said atomic arsenals should be cut “very substantially†and linked a possible new arms deal with Putin to sanctions relief. Russian officials could be deliberately talking down expectations from Trump, of course, in an effort to undermine suspicions they secretly aided his campaign. The FBI and five other US agencies are jointly probing whether Russia helped Trump win in November.
Since Trump didn’t have political background before running for White House, some fear that he has no firm understanding of the policy complications ahead and the threats posed by Russia. Others believe, Trump the dealmaker may be just the right person to set relations back on a road to cooperation that will benefit US national security.
Trump has identified areas of shared US-Russia interests. He has suggested that there are deals to be struck with Moscow on Syria and Ukraine, indicated that NATO’s strong defensive posture on Russia’s western border may be negotiable, expressed skepticism about sanctions.
But the looming question is whether Trump and Putin will find fulfillment or disappointment once face-to-face reality strikes.