Indonesia’s presidential election likely to have only one candidate

Bloomberg

Indonesian President Joko Widodo may find himself without a challenger in the next election.
While Prabowo Subianto — leader of the main opposition party and runner up in the 2014 election — has accepted his party’s endorsement, it’s uncertain if he can assemble a viable coalition to be nominated by an August deadline. Widodo is leading in opinion polls and wooing the former general, who’s seen as his only real competition.
The lack of a credible contender in next year’s election would raise questions over Indonesia’s young democracy, as well as Widodo’s commitment to reforms. He has recently faced criticism for distorting market mechanisms, risking a higher budget deficit and jeopardising much-needed foreign investment in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.
“If Prabowo doesn’t run, either because he can’t secure the necessary support from other parties or because
he makes an improbable alliance with the Jokowi camp, it would increase the likelihood of a one-horse race come April 2019,” said Hugo Brennan, a Jakarta-based senior Asia analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. “Such a scenario would be a setback for Indonesia’s still-young democracy.” Presidential spokesman Johan Budi did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Economic Nationalism
Earlier in his term, Jokowi undertook reforms that won him praise and secured Indonesia its all-important sovereign ratings upgrades — paving the way for billions more in foreign investment. In recent months, however, his government has intervened with price controls on staple foods and placed caps on coal input prices for electricity generation.
The distortions risk widening the budget deficit, said Peter Mumford, Southeast Asia director at Eurasia Group. “The bigger risk for investors is the general intensification of economic nationalism,” Mumford said. “His government is also planning protectionist measures on commodity shipping and insurance, which could further squeeze the role of foreign firms in the sector.”
Indonesia’s economy expanded at a slower pace last quarter than economists had forecast and remains well short of the 7 percent growth targeted by Jokowi.
Jokowi has a commanding lead in
the polls.