India’s central bank signals rate cuts as it boosts liquidity

Bloomberg

India’s central bank governor laid the ground for more interest rate cuts as he took a number of steps to boost liquidity and support lenders amid a nationwide lockdown that’s brought the economy to a virtual standstill.
Governor Shaktikanta Das kept the benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 4.4%, but signalled that inflation will ease to below the central bank’s mid-term target of 4%, providing policy room to address risks. That space “needs to be used effectively and in time,” he said.
Indian corporate bonds and bank stocks jumped after the measures that included a 500 billion rupee ($6.5 billion) targeted injection to support companies and lenders. Government bonds also rallied, with the yield on the 6.18% 2024 debt falling 26 basis points to 5.48%, and that of the benchmark 10-year note sliding nine basis points to 6.35%. A gauge of bank stocks surged 6.8% to a one-month high, while the S&P BSE Sensex rose 3.2%.
Das has previously pledged to do “whatever it takes” to support the economy, which is seen heading for its first full-year contraction in four decades after a nationwide lockdown for almost all of the nation’s 1.3 billion people was extended to 40 days. The government’s stimulus measures have so far been limited, with growing calls from businesses for authorities to do more to support them as job losses mount.
“More rate cuts look to be on the cards, given the RBI’s view that inflation is set to head below their target,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Singapore. “Ultimately though, monetary policy and liquidity provisions can only do so much in the current crisis.”
The central bank lowered repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% — to discourage banks from parking cash with the RBI and instead lend to the economy and announces injection of 500 billion rupees into the corporate bond market in a new round of targeted long-term repo operations. At least half of funds made available to banks through facility should go to lower rate firms, including shadow lenders and micro-financial institutions. Only last month the central bank lowered interest rates in an emergency meeting and announced $50 billion of liquidity injections.
“In the next round, the RBI should cut both the repo and reverse repo rates by 75 basis points,” said Kaushik Das, chief India economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Mumbai.
The central bank once again maintained silence on the need for it to underwrite government debt to create more fiscal room for the central and state governments, whose deficits are likely to blow out due the impact of the pandemic, said Bloomberg’s economists Inflation came in at 5.9% in March and is expected to ease as the lockdown puts a lid on all non-essential consumption.
“Inflation could recede even further, barring supply disruption shocks and may even settle well below the target of 4% by the second half of 2020-21,” Das said. “Such an outlook would make policy space available to address the intensification of risks to growth and financial stability brought on by Covid-19.”