India state polls seen as referendum on Modi’s note ban

Bloomberg

India’s Election Commission announced poll dates for five states—including Uttar Pradesh, a politically crucial election that will gauge the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the wake of his disruptive cash ban move.
Uttar Pradesh, a bellwether state of 200 million people that sends more representatives to India’s upper house than any other region, will vote in seven phases between February 11 and March 8, chief election commissioner Nasim Zaidi said on Wednesday. Punjab—an agricultural state of about 27 million people —will go to the polls on February 4 while three other states will also vote in this phase. All results will be announced March 11.
The raft of state polls will be the first political test following Modi’s overnight move on November 8 to outlaw higher denomination bank notes and invalidate 86 percent of India’s circulated currency. The anti-corruption measure has dented economic growth and forced millions into lengthy bank queues, although it remains broadly popular.
“The upcoming elections in five Indian states in early 2017 will be a key litmus test for the popularity of Modi and the BJP, particularly following the highly contentious demonetization program,”said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Global Insight. “If the BJP is unable to win the UP state election, this will be a very ominous portent for the BJP.”